Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Aug. 31, 2021

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Thu Aug 12 21:33:50 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki Overall it wouldn't surprise me if vaccines were 75-80% effective against symptomatic COVID under Delta but say 50-60% against any COVID infection, which would explain a lot of the discrepancies we're seeing. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki I agree not a lot of asymptomatic people of any kind are probably being tested. But that can also skew the data. e.g. in the Provincetown study a very high percentage of breakthroughs were symptomatic, which means they may not have been typical of breakthrough infections. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dwallacewells @JamesSurowiecki However, the most of the studies of e.g. Ct values in breakthrough infections are biased toward studying symptomatic cases (whether the study authors acknowledge it or not). The one study (REACT) that studied *all* infections *did* find breakthroughs had lower viral loads. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2021