Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, Iceland has been giving booster shots to one-dose J&J recipients. They say 40% of their recent breakthrough cases have been among J&J recipients (higher than the 21% of vaccine recipients that got J&J). https://t.co/xPdTqVRIFg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because lots of people are vaccinated? Also—while the numbers can be volatile in small countries—cases aren't spiking in Iceland anymore, they've begun to decline pretty rapidly. https://t.co/OvtdJuAMI5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @RalstonReports: Good news/sign-of-the-times news on IndyFest, our annual conference Oct. 2-3. First, the good news: @NateSilver538 has… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bp22 We have a polling average here though not a probabilistic forecast. Market probably pretty reasonable though. https://t.co/tjsNncjGrY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave The West Coast has been notably more irrational about COVID policy than the Northeast which isn't necessarily something I'd have expected in advance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bryanjoiner Unfortunately not — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing folks like you don't get is that people like me think the stakes are very high on both sides. No, not with respect to masks, but with respect to things like school and business closures and preventing people from congregating in person. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are plenty of reasonable COVID restrictions that I support but I don't entirely trust the people implementing reasonable restrictions to not also implement unreasonable ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We'll see but the positive test rate (orange line below) has been steady in the US for the past few weeks and that's probably a more robust metric than cases in a country like ours with inadequate testing. I'd be wary of highly confident claims about what will happen to deaths. https://t.co/rlDNNWsxDc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstroKatie I think, though, that the vocabulary could easily have been different. e.g. there's a world where liberals describe severe border restrictions and lockdowns as "human rights violations" and point toward "equity concerns" from lockdowns that mostly protect white-collar workers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias IDK if the US shows a 45-point difference and the median country shows a 10- or 15-point difference it's plausible to me that the small difference that exists in other countries is the result of Trump spillover/influence of US elites. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ryxcommar Yeah there are potentially some reviewer-consistency issues when one reviewer gives 4* even though his child nearly died and the next one gives 1* because the waiter curled his lips in a mildly sarcastic way while picking up his bread basket. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Before the pandemic, I would have guessed that conservatives were COVID hawks and liberals were COVID doves when we wound up the other way around. I'm pretty sure the whole polarity would have evolved differently had Trump decided to be a COVID hawk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Missed this poll before but, yeah, COVID policy decisions are MUCH more polarized along partisan lines in the US than in the rest of the world. https://t.co/pfr3Artmug https://t.co/BNIHi4gFmQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looking for a trail at Acadia tomorrow and kind of think this one is gonna be a pass despite the 4* review. https://t.co/JF7PpAkoop — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: @chrislhayes I think their calculations are insufficiently rigorous given Occam's Razor is that it's incredibly destruct… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think their calculations are insufficiently rigorous given Occam's Razor is that it's incredibly destructive to tell your voters to sit out. It's like intentionally walking the batter with the bases loaded. Very rare it's the right play so you'd better be sure about the math. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes OK, but it's SUCH a big risk to tell your party's voters to literally leave the ballot blank. I think Democrats need more evidence to justify it than the notion that things worked out badly in 2003, which was a different election at a different time against a superstar opponent. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If, for instance, this strategy increases Newsom's chances of winning the recall from 70% to 75%, but reduces the Democrats' chance of winning the replacement race from 50% to 10%, the chance of ending up with an R governor rises from 15% to 22.5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After all, the DIRECT effect of this strategy is that it's MUCH more likely a Republican replaces Newsom, conditional upon the recall succeeding. You'd have to be VERY confident that this strategy makes the recall less likely to succeed to outweigh that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be clear, this *might* be in the best interest of Newsom—on the unproven and but at least vaguely plausible notion that voters might be more likely to vote "yes" on the recall if there's another D to vote for—but it's likely not in the best interests of the Democratic Party. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZoeMcLaren: @michaelmina_lab @NateSilver538 @notdred The fact that PCR testing still takes 2-5 days and costs $75+ is just as big a fai… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Every time I read about how Australia is enforcing its lockdown & border closure I'm surprised there isn't more debate about whether what they're doing is OK as opposed to a human rights infringement. Maybe they're making the least-worst choice. But it ought to be a conversation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lxeagle17 I know, but I think it probably reduces the chances that California retains a Democratic governor, on balance. I also don't love the vibe of Democrats perpetuating the idea that a vote is something to be thrown away at the same time the party is trying to protect voting rights. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pretty much always, if someone tells you not to vote, they are giving you bad advice. If you live in California and leave the recall line blank, you are partly disenfranchising yourself and are making a mistake. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's self-destructive more than self-interested. Pretty decent chance Newsom gets recalled. Democrats could potentially keep the seat if they urged their voters to consolidate behind an alternative Democrat but instead they're telling them not to vote on the replacement! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @michaelmina_lab: @NateSilver538 @notdred I too am surprised. Since March 2020 I’ve been trying to explain that these tests have a speci… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's true that statistical significance and practical significance are not the same thing. But people are generally very happy to twist themselves around and apply any permutation of that distinction so long as they can reinforce their priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ebruenig @HeerJeet Or basically what Elizabeth said in other words. ^^^ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@HeerJeet I think foreign policy (with some exceptions such as Israel) and fiscal policy i) require fairly esoteric knowledge and ii) have largely been untouched by the culture wars, so some of the older norms prevail. But I think these are becoming more the exception than the rule. — PolitiTweet.org