Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 19, 2021

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Mon Aug 23 23:28:55 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes OK, but it's SUCH a big risk to tell your party's voters to literally leave the ballot blank. I think Democrats need more evidence to justify it than the notion that things worked out badly in 2003, which was a different election at a different time against a superstar opponent. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 23, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If, for instance, this strategy increases Newsom's chances of winning the recall from 70% to 75%, but reduces the Democrats' chance of winning the replacement race from 50% to 10%, the chance of ending up with an R governor rises from 15% to 22.5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 23, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think their calculations are insufficiently rigorous given Occam's Razor is that it's incredibly destructive to tell your voters to sit out. It's like intentionally walking the batter with the bases loaded. Very rare it's the right play so you'd better be sure about the math. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 23, 2021