Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Sept. 18, 2021

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Mon Aug 23 23:22:43 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After all, the DIRECT effect of this strategy is that it's MUCH more likely a Republican replaces Newsom, conditional upon the recall succeeding. You'd have to be VERY confident that this strategy makes the recall less likely to succeed to outweigh that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 23, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be clear, this *might* be in the best interest of Newsom—on the unproven and but at least vaguely plausible notion that voters might be more likely to vote "yes" on the recall if there's another D to vote for—but it's likely not in the best interests of the Democratic Party. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 23, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If, for instance, this strategy increases Newsom's chances of winning the recall from 70% to 75%, but reduces the Democrats' chance of winning the replacement race from 50% to 10%, the chance of ending up with an R governor rises from 15% to 22.5%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 23, 2021