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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Polls (and polling-based forecasts) have been pretty darn accurate in the Democratic race so far. https://t.co/ARx7UuWfxD — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Bernie is 0-2 in caucuses so far -- and might win every state caucus from here on out. https://t.co/E9k8umuEr5 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We share @nate_cohn skepticism about entrance poll finding that Clinton lost Hispanics in Nevada. https://t.co/sRo8eiRPuM — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
"Clinton held serve and remains the favorite ... Sanders is likely to keep her on her toes for some time to come." https://t.co/1lXYd6TqUi — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Key question is who's overperforming in large, slow-to-report precincts. Could turn into a large-ish Clinton win or a narrow Sanders win. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Current results would extrapolate to a 5-6% NV win for Clinton. Key word is extrapolate -- this is a rough estimate. https://t.co/qv4fargfCp — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The Clark County numbers -- 71% of the Nevada's vote in 2008 -- look pretty good for Clinton. https://t.co/E4W3MyEphC — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So far appears that, as in 2008, Clinton doing well in Las Vegas and not as well in rest of Nevada. https://t.co/Ojh5IpiGXc — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Caucuses are dumb but especially dumb in Nevada, where they disenfranchise workers in the state's key industry. https://t.co/m7cpL81NaF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Still, these entrance polls are based on a small and possibly non-representative sample. Not a lot of info here. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Entrance polls flipped from showing a 3-point Clinton lead to a 2-point Sanders lead as more data was released. https://t.co/JzZkSOqUOJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Caucuses suck. https://t.co/J9UCjHYp7A — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
On the other hand, the last-minute Google search spike for Cruz and Rubio in South Carolina is pretty interesting. https://t.co/JFF4hF2qck — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Be really careful with those early entrance polls. Not intended for making projections. Weren't accurate in Iowa. https://t.co/pGiGXSSPss — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
No Spinning A Nevada Loss For Clinton https://t.co/AAoVUEXNMr — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's FiveThirtyEight's Nevada and/or South Carolina liveblog! --> https://t.co/rK9O9WM0Ad — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @HawkinsUSA: 6:30-10:30 Morning Trend: 1 Rubio (red) 2 Cruz (yellow) 3 Trump (blue) 4 Kasich (green) 5 Jeb (purple) https://t.co/BLh7TnK… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So now Cruz and Rubio have nearly caught up to Trump in Google searches in SC. Small sample but was predictive-ish indicator in IA & NH. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @chrislhayes: Guy comes up to me in the lobby of the casino. "You do a fantastic job! You're the 539 guy, right?" — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Google searches in SC: Cruz, Rubio making up gap with Trump, although not as dramatic as in Iowa. No pulse for Bush. https://t.co/EVqpT1SNNv — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
GSW 73. https://t.co/kUW2CbBcJZ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Relative to that forecast, I'd subtract a couple points from Kasich (nothing on the line) and add a couple to Cruz (good turnout operation). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Our polls-plus forecast in SC. Bit more aggressive than poll avg: Trump 31 Rubio 20 Cruz 20 Jeb 11 Kasich 9 Carson 8 https://t.co/VAA1wtMMjL — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Put another way: Trump's got the most loyal base in the party, but if you're not with him at the start probably won't get on board later on. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also worth remembering that Trump did badly in IA and mediocrely in NH among late-deciders, per exit polls. So that might be a pattern. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Our model tries to balance recency and pollster quality, which are at odds in SC. Late-breaking polls aren't always the most thorough ones. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
SC polling average: Trump 32.6 Cruz 18.9 Rubio 17.4 Bush 10.0 Kasich 8.3 Carson 7.1 https://t.co/pI2LyAan9O — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
We're running polling-based forecasts in Nevada: https://t.co/GXCgdcQduM Here's why you should mostly ignore them: https://t.co/FyVyj65J5b — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jonathanchait: I agree with you that poli-sci types can be too dismissive of chances for 3rd party. But don't think Bloomberg is right guy. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Pundit class simultaneously thinks: 1) Trump/Sanders represent a populist revolt against technocratic elites 2) Mike Bloomberg is the answer — PolitiTweet.org
