Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @ReubenR80027912 Yeah, I think the elite consensus on how much one should do to avoid very-likely-to-be-mild breakthrough infections is already pretty fragile and it might not take much to tip it. Though, that likely means a lot of nasty fights on this platform in the meantime. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@katrosenfield FWIW I had pretty bad side effects (joint/muscle pain) after my 2nd shot but they were a good deal milder after my booster. Though, I also learned to take it easy for a couple days. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pretty much the only interesting Omicron takes right now are people trying to make sense of the South Africa data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I wish I could find some way to bet on the proposition that within 5-10 years, firms that rely more on hiring from elite colleges will underperform those that hire more broadly, other factors held constant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some of the disconnects in coverage of Omicron is really just about time horizons, because a variant that is considerably more transmissible but considerably milder could be bad news in the short run but good news in the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Sorry, Matt. They declared it a 🍦SCOOP🍦which retroactivity nullifies all previous reporting and analysis on the topic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 There is "no evidence" of these claims, Philippe! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @notdred Yeah. There are some plausible causal mechanisms here. There's also this, which I haven't seen much follow-up upon. https://t.co/rw0jLU4j2J — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron Also, unless I'm misreading the report, the hospitalization share *is* lower with Omicron, no? (24 out of 15063 = 0.16%, as compared with 1392 out of 208947 = 0.67%). Just not enough to achieve statistical significance after whatever fancy adjustments etc. they're doing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah. I get that SA could be different because of a different age or immunity profile, etc. But, the SA experts have been telling us from the start that this looks *really* different to them, and I think people should maybe be giving some deference to that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/bqQxMLSesn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah that's extremely bullish! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a completely unfair characterization. In reality, I don't like DC and would never spend enough time there to make restaurant recommendations. 😂 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @notdred: Suddenly the demand for boosters is huge and many people can't get appointments for weeks. I'm going to be bitter for a long t… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave Yeah, few of my friends fall into the "reading the NYT guide on whether to go to that Christmas party!" group. Then again, we self-select our friends. I expect people to be pretty low-key in January (OK to meet for dinner, but not in big groups), which maybe not the worst thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BlueBoxDave @robbysoave I think NYC is maybe in Tier 3.5. Less eager to enact restrictions than Boston/DC/California, more so than the places further down the list. But, I also think NYC's restrictions have been a little smarter and better-targeted. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave We'll see (and are already seeing) substantial restrictions in tiers 1-2, I think. How much further it goes beyond is hard to say IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@robbysoave There's a hierarchy that goes like: Tier 1: "Elite" university campuses Tier 2: Very blue California counties Tier 3: CA statewide, Boston, DC, WA/OR/HI Tier 4: Other blue states (e.g. NY/NJ/CT, IL) Tier 5: Urban areas in purple states Tier 6: Purple states, statewide — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JSEllenberg Yeah, it may be that the era of media that I came up in (what I call the "bloggy 'aughts") were sort of an outlier in terms of being relatively analytical as compared to narrative-driven and that the latter is usually more popular. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So much highbrow media is oriented around the question of "how should the sort of person who reads this publication think, feel and behave?" Whereas I'm old-fashioned I guess and I just want information, with the complexities not necessarily resolved into a neat, tidy package. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I have some intuitions, but I don't think they're worth sharing. One thing I think people do miss is that the US still has some fairly bad Delta problems. i.e. if Omicron had never been a thing, January might still have been rough given seasonality, slow booster uptake, apathy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The experts who are most prominent (e.g. who have the largest Twitter followings or who are cited most often in the NYT) are tending to take less optimistic views on the question. However, in this context, not sure there's a positive correlation between prominence and accuracy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's definitely still a mom-and-dad are fighting vibe among the experts to the question of "how much less severe is Omicron" without anything you could really say resembles a consensus. Though, a lack of consensus is way better than a premature consensus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes With some important caveats, Paxlovid fits that definition and it's sort of interesting that the news ecosystem didn't really treat it as such and there hasn't been a lot of urgency around it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think folks are underestimating the chance that if Biden doesn't run, Democrats will be panicked after what will probably be a bad 2022 and looking for a "fresh face"/outsider. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@VorosM Also a good journeyman left-handed reliever name IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing to note: in the past, support for restrictions has tended to track with the threat posed by the virus, e.g. support for NPIs increased amid the Delta surge. But now the situation is getting more threatening again and support for restrictions is nonetheless decreasing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But calls for constant vigilance or the "swiss cheese model" potentially run the risk of producing exhaustion for most people, including people who are concerned about COVID and its effects on their communities. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And faced with a variety of restrictions, the public may no longer distinguish between relatively more and relatively less effective ones. Plurality is now opposed to vaccine requirements at work, and support for masks has dropped since the fall, though it retains a majority. https://t.co/Qft6Ia5Jbb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Needless to say, Democrats tend to be more supportive of restrictions, but also tend to face more restrictions in and/or are more likely to abide by them, which is why there's a lot of fatigue on both sides. — PolitiTweet.org