Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 5, 2022

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Thu Dec 16 15:01:24 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The experts who are most prominent (e.g. who have the largest Twitter followings or who are cited most often in the NYT) are tending to take less optimistic views on the question. However, in this context, not sure there's a positive correlation between prominence and accuracy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's definitely still a mom-and-dad are fighting vibe among the experts to the question of "how much less severe is Omicron" without anything you could really say resembles a consensus. Though, a lack of consensus is way better than a premature consensus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I have some intuitions, but I don't think they're worth sharing. One thing I think people do miss is that the US still has some fairly bad Delta problems. i.e. if Omicron had never been a thing, January might still have been rough given seasonality, slow booster uptake, apathy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 16, 2021