Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Are you sure you're thinking like an epidemiologist? My family will be having igloos built (vaccinated children aged 5-9 will be permitted to bunk with one but not both parents) and ordering individual meals through DoorDash. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@charles_gaba I'm from Michigan and am pretty familiar with Bloomfield Hills and know that e.g. the median household income there is $170k. It is a nice place but not well representative of Michigan or the Midwest overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've spent most of December away from NYC in various purple/blue places (Kansas City, Las Vegas, Miami) and I don't think some media types realize how much shrugging off of Omicron there is, for better or worse, outside of a few very blue cities and college towns. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm saying there's huge variation in how concerned people are about Omicron, even as compared with previous variants, and that's resulting in very large disparities in testing, making case counts even less useful than usual. Hospitalization data better. https://t.co/kgtXM7dsD8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Related fact: NYC's test positivity rate is very similar to the US overall (varies by source but both in the ballpark of 10%). So, I don't know that NYC and DC are epicenters of Omicron so much as that there's a lot of Omi everywhere and that's where people are looking for it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I *think* it's where people live. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Huge disparities in NYC in how often people are getting tested, with about a 6-fold difference between the top and bottom zip codes (though, even the bottom zip codes in NYC have test rates >= the US average). https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR https://t.co/dLOL3SguWg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC new hospitalizations for the past 8 days: 198 220 200 193 214 143 142 176 There's growth, but it's hardly a disaster (today only 12% higher than last Thursday) and hard to distinguish from modest growth that had already been occurring under Delta. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart You would know better than me, but this particular time series is one that's often used in political forecasting since it correlates decently well with election outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Real income has had some wild swings over the past few years because of COVID-related stimulus payments. But it has been falling for the past few months, largely due to inflation. People have less money in their pockets; the idea that inflation is just a media fixation is wrong. https://t.co/2w59VdHRbv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kdrum Because a decently large percentage of public health experts have been rather partisan throughout the pandemic. Others haven't, which I greatly appreciate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I didn't even remember this but wow. I doubt the same letter would have been sent had 2020 not been an election year or had a Democrat been in office. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Should be noted that South Africa had very little COVID of any kind when its Omicron wave started, whereas in the US, we have big Delta problems. To what extent Omicron comes "on top of" Delta as opposed to displacing Delta seems like an important question. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hospitalization numbers are still growing in Gauteng province, but not by much (290 in ICU vs. 255 a week ago). And since their cases have begun to decline, hospitalizations likely near peak too, and much lower than prior waves. https://t.co/IADxxEjgfW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People miss the really good news in the South Africa data, which is that the *absolute* number of severe outcomes (e.g. ICU admissions) is quite low as compared to previous waves. It's *not* just a lower percentage (which could cause problems with a high enough # of cases). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Gerrymandering of state legislatures, on the other hand... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, Biden won by 4.5 points, so that ~51-52% of districts voted for Biden is not super surprising and could still be in line with a slight GOP lean in the House in a tied election. But, gerrymandering of Congressional districts is not Democrats' biggest problem right now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with 'temporary' COVID measures is that, while they might be sensible during a surge, policymakers don't have a lot of credibility at this point for turning them off in a timely fashion once the emergency abates. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@K_G_Andersen I'd have thought you'd have learned to be more precise in your communications by now. I think you've done a lot to undermine the credibility of your profession. https://t.co/Xp4iz6a2Ly — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@K_G_Andersen This is kind of BS. There's plenty of data (see e.g. below) from scientists from all around the world. There's just not proof because that takes a long time to establish. https://t.co/vidC6vjejV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DrewSav You may well have been the source of the rabbit hole! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know what rabbit hole led me to this piece of copy about the last days of John Kerry's 2004 campaign. But it's from 17 years ago and reads as though it's either an actual article from 100 years ago or an Onion parody from today. https://t.co/WEAyPdhgIM https://t.co/X4N7yYmc8P — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm I agree. I just think that the audience is smarter than publications sometimes assume and can walk and chew gum at the same time and handle some complexity, e.g. "the news looks pretty good on severity, but here's why you might still want to be careful for the next few weeks". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm A lot of it is good. With generalist publications, the results are a bit more mixed. I do think there's too much certainty around the idea hospitals will be overwhelmed b/c of Omicron. Probably, in part because some were already on the brink with Delta! But they weren't in SA. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

News stories need to be able to convey when probabilities have meaningfully shifted even though uncertainties remain. That's how most news works—you don't go from total uncertainty to 100% overnight. Here's an example of a story that struck the right tone: https://t.co/3BRexiSwc5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You can say "we don't know enough to come to any conclusions about Omicron's severity". But people with money on the line are clearly willing to make big bets on a probabilistic basis, as stocks prices for companies that rely on in-person activity have boomed over the past week. https://t.co/IgwuCnH15D — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I hope this tweet can also serve as a reminder to Marylanders and others about the dangers of Full Justify. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @dancow: easily the worst political novelty account to have ever existed. More cringe than the combined cringe of 50 Room Raters https:/… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin I've had Pfizer, Moderna (booster) and a Delta breakthrough so maybe I can do it myself. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheZvi Yeah. I don't know what to make of it or how robust the CDC's data is. — PolitiTweet.org