Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss This is a lie. Sometimes it's thousand island dressing mixed with chipotle aioli. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: “If you have to sum up Joe Biden’s problem in a nutshell, it’s this: he promised a return to normal and we haven’t really… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And this is probably harder for Biden than other presidents precisely because there are so many acute problems right now, most obviously COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That said, this is tricky for any presidental agenda, since acute problems are often dealt with more through executive action or are beyond the powers of the president to solve at all. But I don't think the WH has done a good job of selling why e.g. BBB is an *urgent* priority. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Theats to democracy" is a more complicated case in that there are both chronic and (extremely!) acute problems. But the legislation proposed to date has also tended to be geared toward addressing the chronic ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems to me like the "right" way to frame the critique of Biden's legislative agenda is not that it's too ambitious or too left-wing per se but that voters want him to address *acute* problems whereas something like BBB tends to address *chronic* ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@katrosenfield @benwallacewells @job_gyhb @mattyglesias I also think we're mostly not talking about government-imposed regulations at this point so much as whether people are getting back to their "normal" social lives and not spending a ton of mental bandwidth on COVID-related risk calculations or negotiating changes to their plans. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp It was much less bullshitty when it was concerned with nuclear risk specifically. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@katrosenfield @mattyglesias My best guess from survey and behavioral data was that, pre-Omicron, something like 15% of people were still substantially limiting in-person social interactions. Maybe we get down to half of that (5-10%) eventually. I think it will be a long while before it gets much BELOW that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @katrosenfield I was going to half-jokingly say something like "the people who are still super COVID cautious can move to Brookline, Mass. and leave the rest of us alone". But I do wonder if you'll continue to get more geographic sorting on this basis, e.g. a COVID-cautious housing development. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@wwwojtekk NYC has definitely been more subdued but far from shut down. Like, basketball and hockey games are still drawing 20,000 (screaming, mostly maskless) fans a night. Restaurant reservations are running at maybe 75-80% of their pre-Omi levels, per OpenTable. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In NYC (not sure about elsewhere?) there can be pretty strong day-of-week effects in terms of when people are admitted to or discharged from the hospital, or at least how the numbers are reported. For that reason good to take the 7-day average. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@williamjordann Or it's fake because nobody can seem to find a link to it. It's either fake or a bad model. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dcg1114 @databyler My understanding is that's some sort of MRP model though where they use national data to help extrapolate to states that don't have a lot of interviews. Collecting a rolling trendline of data for each senator is a heavier lift. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@databyler Does Civiqs even do state-level approval polling? Can't find it from their website. https://t.co/gO98fMqPiV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Random Q for air travel nerds but is there any logic to which cities airlines show on these in-flight maps? I assume it must be done algorithmically but it's weird to show, like, Topeka instead of nearby and much-better-known Kansas City. https://t.co/irrI3znp6p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sometimes public opinion is complicated, but "Biden promised a return to normal and we didn't get one" is a pretty straightforward story for his declining numbers. https://t.co/fQFHiiI0yr https://t.co/nqiTRU2Tb7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sinema and Manchin are an odd couple insofar as their electoral environments are a lot different. Sinema has probably hurt her chances of being reelected because a primary challenge at this point will have a high likelihood of success. With Manchin incentives harder to parse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I think I mostly disagree. I'm a big fan of best-you-can-do analyses when it really is the best you can do. The problem is that 90% of academic papers run some regression but dress it up as though they've solved Fermat's Last Theorem. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah I almost tweeted something that was like "it was obvious that they'd follow the same path" but if I'd asked myself 2 weeks ago, I don't think have thought it was obvious. Always seemed very possible but not obvious. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It really is pretty darn similar. NYC and DC both were about 3 weeks from the infection point where cases started rising very rapidly to the peak, which was the same as in Guateng Province. https://t.co/jXnjXgLLWB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @JamesSurowiecki @RossBarkan The overall NY experience is smoother than I would have thought and the promos and "boosted" bets are pretty attractive right now. But, I don't know if I'm the typical customer. I'm pretty price-sensitive and also sensitive to legal/payout risk. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan Yeah, it's all pretty weird. The hierarchy of skilled to unskilled gambling goes something like: Lottery Slots Table Games Poker / Sports Betting The less skilled forms tend to involve a larger house cut AND draw from a poorer audience. But they're much more widely legal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @RossBarkan Yeah, there's a pretty active set of "gray market" alternatives. With that said, all the advertising may move the needle a bit. p.s. Don't forget to use promo code NATE538 when signing up for your **NO-RISK** $538 bet at Nate's Great SportsBook (terms and conditions may apply). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan Things we can probably say with some confidence: 1) The total amount lost will be less; 2) The losses will be more concentrated, i.e. a few people will lose a lot rather than a lot losing a little; 3) Sports-betting losers will be higher-income on average than lottery losers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan Some of that is because the house cut in sports betting isn't all that large as compared to something like the lottery. So it's sort of a catch-22: The lottery generates far more money for the state, but that's because it screws over people a lot more. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @TPCarney From the recent debate over booster shots, to school closures, to how to prioritize people for vaccines, to how the lab leak debate was handled, to efforts to discourage a vaccine EUA before the election, a lot of it has been infused with partisan or ideological considerations. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @TPCarney Even for me, it was a wake-up call that a lot of public health commentary had a highly partisan valence. It didn't personally change my individual risk calculations. But it did entrench I had to make those calls on my own and that certain external guidance wasn't so trustworthy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @TPCarney It's just hard to overstate how zealous some public health experts were at the time about pushing essentially a Zero COVID policy and how equally zealous some of the exact same experts were about defending the protests *from a public health standpoint*. It was a real step change. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki @TPCarney I think you're considerably overestimating the degree to which "outdoor activity is basically safe" was the consensus by May 2020. There was certainly emerging evidence of it, but it was by no means the dominant message, and many outdoor activities were restricted or discouraged. — PolitiTweet.org