Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Oops this was phrased badly. The 7-day average in DC is 1 death/day, not 1 death per 7 days. https://t.co/LplDxdATQw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Right now DC is averaging 1 COVID death per 7 days. But the mayor recently extended the mask mandate through Feb. 28. You can debate what policy should be when some new wave comes along. But delivering full normalcy when severe outcomes are rare should be the easy part. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Irony is that one thing the Biden administration probably *could* do is signal to Northeastern liberals—where COVID has fallen dramatically and vax rates are high—to fully resume social/civic life. But maybe the WH is staffed by people who need to hear that message themselves. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The White House's COVID messaging strategy sounds pretty incoherent. They want to "reset people's expectations" but they don't want to do a "hard pivot" and they also don't want to do anything substantive like revising mask guidance. https://t.co/Ns76KCf7qI https://t.co/DrMn511pKl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbview Well shit, I forgot about curling. I'm basically Team Won't Watch The 2022 Olympics Except For Curling. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think I've ever been less excited about a major sporting event than I am about the 2022 Winter Olympics. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin @awprokop Tag yourself I'm... an Englishman? (I did live in London for a year.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan @jayrosen_nyu I don't like them either. But, they have the benefit of being easy to produce since a host can just kind of pick a series of topics and say "go". Even a 1-on-1 interview requires considerably more prep work. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan @jayrosen_nyu I'd also challenge the notion that conflict is good for ratings. Maybe it is but maybe it isn't. CNN's audience is liberal, and lots of people are happy enough just to hear from a stream of smart-seeming people who confirm their viewpoints. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss Mostly true but for a PM flight, I like timing things such that you'd expect to have exactly one drink at the airport bar (so, say, arrive ~70-80 minutes before a domestic departure instead of ~50-60) which also gives you a buffer in case something goes wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade As a Detroit Lions fan I must unfortunately agree with this statement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DinoStraciatela @R_Thaler But not necessarily the #1 overall pick (or the top 2 or 3 picks). Also, football analytics have improved a lot and come to recognize that a great QB >> any other position, so QBs are going #1 more than they used to. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AlexParkerDC If it were me I'd go back to the old-school NBA system where all non-playoff teams have an equally-weighted chance at the top 3 picks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Always kind of weird the NFL didn't have a draft lottery when the NBA did since an elite QB prospect is roughly as valuable as an elite NBA prospect. I bet they'll have one now. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not going to link to the site because it's spammy but the sports gambling boom seems to have created a robust market for Google Translate Injury Updates. https://t.co/JeHE5uqAwY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah, and I do think there's some messaging blame to go around there since always were SOME breakthroughs, and there was some reason to think there would be more over time between waning immunity and evolution of the virus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of the problem is the vaccines were *so* effective early on that people thought they could reduce risk to ZERO and/or bring about herd immunity, instead of REDUCING risk to the point where it made sense to "return to normal" since avoiding in-person activity is very harmful. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Expectations relative to when? The vaccines work much better (and came out much faster) than I'd have thought in February 2020—I'm very happy to have taken a vaccine/booster that reduces my risk of severe outcomes by ~95%—though maybe worse than I'd have thought in February 2021. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 This is also why I find myself increasingly disinterested in COVID debates. If someone isn't willing to accept the premise that public policy ought to be subject to cost-benefit analysis, there isn't much point in arguing with them about anything else. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other words, if people are unhappy, that's bad for the incumbent party (Democrats in 2022/2024). And people have lots of good reasons to be unhappy. I'm not sure if it matters so much to sort out whether they're unhappy because of COVID or the economy per se. 4/4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe it's also the case that poor consumer sentiment is capturing some degree of (COVID-related) poor overall well-being rather than poor financial circumstances per se. But that's still useful to know, because poor overall well-being is likely bad news for Biden politically. 3/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By extension: If consumers are experiencing COVID-related disruptions in ways that aren't well-captured by traditional indicators, the problem probably isn't so much that consumers have changed but that the indicators are inadequate. 2/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Having done a LOT of research on how the economy impacts elections: there is NOT any one "magic" indicator that fully captures how voters feel about the economy. The best you can do is to take a broad mix of indicators (including inflation) at different time horizons. 1/ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I also wonder if there are potentially some downstream political effects, i.e. ordinarily people becoming more "domestic" and less "cosmopolitan" is strongly correlated with their becoming more conservative. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@tomgara @katherinemiller I doubt that the city will only be at 60% of prior office capacity going forward, but I could see 80% where the losses are concentrated in Midtown as it was already under pressure from more desirable office locations. But isn't the answer that some of it converts to residential? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jaycaspiankang It's mid-winter (still) in the middle of a pandemic, there's been a relative dearth of other news, everyone is bored. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 The good news is that as R0 approaches infinity, there will be no need for any mitigation measures since everybody will instantly get COVID the moment that one person does. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AlecMacGillis FWIW, New York felt increasingly "back" until mid-December, when Omicron understandably sucked a lot of life out of it. What's maybe more surprising is there hasn't been much of a recovery yet despite cases falling precipitously. Maybe the weather but people sorta in hibernation. https://t.co/GTxvaCfGPY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think it's cute that the British assume their elected officials *aren't* total hypocrites. But more seriously I think the extreme levels of partisanship in the US very likely reduce the impact of scandals. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I'm kind of curious if there was a competitive bidding process or if the NYT just called this guy and said "We'll give you a million dollars" and he says "How about $1.4?" and they say "done". — PolitiTweet.org