Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dancow Conveniently Walt Dinsey World and The Bronx each occupy about 40 square miles so we can just move it up there! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DrewSav @lxeagle17 I guess the way I think of it is there are a lot of different ingredients working in Florida. There's a lot of WWC migration but also among other groups, e.g. migration from NY/NJ/CT and some tech and finance people from the West Coast. So you probably want to retain some optiona — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@derekwillis @lxeagle17 @DrewSav Yeah, unless your problems are with Cuban-Americans and Puerto Ricans *very* specifically, it's hard to map out a strategy where you're writing off Florida but aren't also having problems in Arizona, Nevada and Texas. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lxeagle17 @DrewSav I also think Florida's trajectory is pretty unpredictable in the long run. In the short run, people are probably moving there in part because of its conservative politics. But by "fundamentals" (e.g. urban and very diverse) it ought to be purple if not even a little blue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@aedwardslevy @PatrickRuffini @nataliemj10 Yeah, I was just on a college campus that had recently repealed its mask mandate and spoke to several different classes. Mask-wearing varied from 10% to 90% from class to class, often with overlapping groups of students! Many people are pretty flexible and just trying to fit in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@aedwardslevy @PatrickRuffini @nataliemj10 I think the theory is something like: people privately dislike wearing masks—maybe more so than they let on—but also view mask-wearing as polite and conscientious. So there can be preference cascades depending on what others are doing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @PatrickRuffini That's certainly the case for flying in particular. But—just from traveling a *lot* around the US—it seems like there are a lot of other places and contexts where people mostly don't mask unless required, despite mask mandates being somewhat popular in polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini I suspect the gap reflects some combination of all of these, plus the fact that people who are *very* COVID cautious may not be on airlines or out in public much in the first place — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini Important to differentiate a few different theories: 1) Polls aren't capturing a representative sample 2) People aren't stating their true preferences (b/c of e.g. social desirability bias) 3) People prefer a mask mandate *in principle* but won't mask unless others must also — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But restaurant dining is a very common activity across different social classes. Pre-pandemic, people spent more on food away from home as all other forms of entertainment combined. 40-45% of food spending is away from home as opposed to home cooking. https://t.co/y2WBUKmbAJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Per survey data, Americans have restaurant meals ~5 times per week which is about 250 times per year. Many or most of these are not fancy meals but fast food, a quick lunch, etc. There's also a little bit of ambiguity about how takeout is counted. https://t.co/nak6tBbtaC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The average American eats at a restaurant about 250 times per year, whereas they travel by airplane about 2.5 times per year. Dining out and general nightly social activity is a much, much, much bigger contributor to COVID spread than air travel. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is not a good argument. When the virus is contained in one location, then, yes, travel of any kind will spread it to new locations. When the virus is ~everywhere, as it is now, air travel is a relatively uncommon activity and probably doesn't make a major contribution. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bp22 IMO it's a pretty safe bet that travel is likely to increase—especially as business travel returns. (Anecdotally, as someone who gets invited to a lot of in-person events, there's been an uptick recently.) But, may be pretty hard to know how much of that to attribute to masks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bp22 So, I don't know. The travel mandate was somewhat popular in polls, and I think some people will travel less as a result of it being removed, as well as others who will travel more. Personally I think the airlines should offer a mix of masked and mask-optional flights. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The average American spends something like 5 hours per year on a plane. The mask mandate might be good or bad at the margin, but it is very unlikely to make a major difference in the overall course of the coronavirus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Senate voted 57-40 to repeal the mask mandate. https://t.co/q13cNyAFN0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Delta and Southwest have, I'd guess, the reddest customer base based on where they fly? United and jetBlue probably the bluest? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias But Matt she's 35!!!!!! If she's 41, totally different story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I can imagine there are any number of logistical difficulties. I guess the question is whether there's a sizable portion of the market who would significantly reduce their air travel without a mask requirement, especially on routes connecting big blue coastal metros. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I guess I'm not so much predicting this will happen as saying I think it's a decent solution. You already have some version of this, e.g. the last play I went to in NYC had vax and mask requirements, the last Rangers game did not, and the crowd at both venues seemed pretty happy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The medium-run equilibrium is probably that airlines designate some of their flights as mask-required and some as mask-optional. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The medium-run equilibrium is probably that airlines designate some of their flights as mask-requied and some as mask-optional. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't particularly see how the age of a judge is relevant to analyzing her jurisprudence, but so long as you have lifetime appointments, both parties probably ought to be exceptionally aggressive about appointing judges who are as young as possible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi I think there's often good reason to be skeptical of issue polling but this is a pretty straightforward issue where I'd suspect question wording etc doesn't make much difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi I can see that if it was a 55-45 issue but at 70-30 it's hard to believe it would be a big liability politically. And in that Gallup poll, even a majority of Olds favor legalization. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kwcollins Yeah I guess the issue is mostly Biden.... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's legitimately perplexing that Democrats don't take action on an issue that polls this well. Maybe a reflection of the fact that support for marijuana legalization varies by age and party leaders are mostly old boomers. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss I would start doing a karaoke version of "Livin' On A Prayer" as loudly as humanly possible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RossBarkan @mattyglesias I mean I think between social media pile-ons, educational polarization (which begets a lot of partisanship) and other factors, the range of "acceptable" opinions has narrowed a lot on the left. So the threshold for labeling views as contrarian is way too low. — PolitiTweet.org