Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @RossBarkan: It was also really weird the media treated it as a fait accompli that the Democrats in 2016 would win a third term in the W… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jbarro: It also gets at what's so creepy about the "disinformation" frame -- the underlying idea is that voters are making wrong choice… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

—Role of "Russian propagandists" likely minor. —Not sure we should be linking Trump and Brexit. —Leaves out role of mainstream media (but-her-emails at NYT, nonstop Trump rallies on CNN). —If claim is lack of content regulation responsible for Trump or Brexit win, dubious. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not that this is *unquestionably* wrong so much as that it contains far too many questionable assertions and assumptions and errors of omission to be part of the casually-tossed-off received wisdom. https://t.co/uvvfqvxgh8 https://t.co/7ZxUQ5jU0F — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp Yeah, some of these GOP laws are just unabashedly hypocritical. But I also think (some parts of) the left have moved away from liberal speech norms and alternate between acknowledging that and obfuscating it in a way that somewhat gets them the worst of both worlds. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias And cable news hosts/guests. But, yeah, the general point is certainly true. The Democratic commentariat is considerably to the left of elected officials (excepting in certain primary campaigns). There's much less of a mismatch on the GOP side. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Free speech is *such* a popular idea in the US that—even though most Americans favor imitations on it—Democrats are probably taking a political risk by letting it get coded as a conservative concept. https://t.co/2z6CfbRLvO — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade The Knicks have a pretty good argument, for sure. Maybe the Maple Leafs if you're into hockey. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@LemieuxLGM I mean, we have a lot of teams! The Giants and Yankees (though, no finals appearances for either team since 2012) bring up the average a lot. The Rangers, while often competent/competitive recently, bring it down. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Between the Mets, Jets, Nets and Knicks, New York has a pretty good argument for "most cursed sports city". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Yair_Rosenberg Yeah, in principle "when I don't know much, I'll listen to those whose opinions I generally trust" is a sensible plan, but it doesn't take much for it to drift into confirmation bias. You start to seek out those who hold the opinion and soon get a false sense of consensus. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron I think there's some degree of narcissism-of-small differences, for sure, but (as someone who has sort of had to navigate between them) I also think there are real differences in what each culture values even if they agree on a lot politically. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AstorAaron Tech bro culture and academic/media culture compete for cultural hegemony in liberal spaces (emphatically including Twitter!) and he has all the markers of tech bro culture. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Manchin getting re-elected in 2024 would be some of the best news Democrats could hope for but I'll probably get roasted for saying so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade I don't know. Lots of plausible theories. It's also interesting that Republicans generally haven't outperformed polls in elections without Trump on the ballot. I do wonder if there's something about Trump in particular that turns out low-propensity voters who polls miss. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Second election in a row where (if initial projections hold) Le Pen will underperform her polls. It's basically a myth that polls underrate right-wing and/or nationalist candidates. True for Trump, but not true in the aggregate. https://t.co/KejtGLldTD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@johnhollinger I still can't over the fact that they traded several pretty good assets *for* one of the 2 or 3 worst contracts in the league. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor @tbonier I don't think it's a law of physics and, certainly, "fundamentals"-based electoral determinism can go too far. But I do think the context that incumbent parties very often struggle is important and we don't know yet whether D performance will be better or worse than average. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Communications professionals vastly overrate how important communications are to political outcomes. Incumebent parties usually do poorly in midterms (it's not clear Ds will do any worse than average), the country has big problems, it's not so easy to message your way out of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Protentialmn @PhilGalfond It might be worth looking at something like the AAA as a model, e.g. a non-profit membership organization that provides useful services to members but also does some advocacy/lobbying. https://t.co/i9GX2EfjnG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PhilGalfond @Protentialmn Maybe you need to make it a social thing with meetups (bar nights, poker games) and so forth. Lots of players would potentially be interested in meeting other poker players in their area. The members then elect an executive committee, which does the hard stuff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki These threads also never quite acknowledge how much the NYT (and other media) changed from 2016 to 2022. One can still find examples of "bothsides-ism" but in most ways the NYT has moved much closer to what its critics were asking of it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@allahpundit I've been around these parts a long time, and I can tell you the day SCOTUS rejects CDC's appeal is going to be The Worst Day In Twitter History. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Given how few Sunbelt states outside of CA actually have progressive politics, I think this inevitably leads us to the Disney Casino Kingdom™ and Bunny Ranch in Summerlin, Nevada. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Currently there is excess supply of Paxlovid! Maybe the concern is there wouldn't be enough supply if public health messaging emphasized it more and/or eligibility were universal. But that's a lot of preventable deaths/hospitalizations/long COVID cases. https://t.co/dtsChcL1zL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's at least try to understand the difference between an average vs. a mode or a median if we're going to attempt dunks about statistical claims? Is that really too much to ask? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Let's at least try to understand the difference between an average vs. a mode or median right if we're going to attempt dunks about statistical claims? Is that really too much to ask? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The average American spends several hundred hours per year in school. Airline travel is a very small proportion of people's overall COVID exposure. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pourmecoffee Gut, schmut. I'm going to be able to *buy* Jupiter if my Mavs in 5 / intelligent-life-discovered-on-Io parlay (+130000) hits. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pourmecoffee Dude, I'm pounding Io at +350. So much value there. — PolitiTweet.org