Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When someone is described as having coherent political views, maybe that's true of, say, a committed Marxist or democratic socialist or libertarian. But not really of a committed Democrat or Republican. Don't confuse partisanship for philosophical coherence. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, keep in mind that in a 2-party system, the parties' platforms aren't so philosophically coherent. Instead, they reflect complex trade-offs in coalition building and maintenance. There's no particular reason your view on abortion should be correlated with your view on taxes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good corrective to the "moderates aren't actually moderates but just have a mix of extreme left-wing and right-wing views" narrative. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also note that Pennsylvania and Michigan are *considerably* more urban than Wisconsin. If current trends continue and Democrats derive more and more of their vote from urban areas, they have a better chance of salvaging PA/MI than WI. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We think this is much better than traditional population density metrics. For instance, Nevada has relatively low population density because it has a lot of empty space. But it is quite urban: nearly everyone lives in Las Vegas or Reno/Tahoe/Sparks. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here, using 2020 Census data, is the FiveThirtyEight urbanization index. It measures how many people live within 5 miles of the average resident in the state. (The Urbanization Index is the natural logarithm of this number.) https://t.co/9IWhvh6dqx — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'm just saying this would be a good issue for bipartisan legislation; for Maria Cantwell or Chris Murphy to work with Mike Lee or whatever. Democrats are in charge of Congress for now! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Maybe because the left thinks it's unseemly to criticize "the experts" especially during a D administration and the right has more engaging issues to rile up its base? Another question (it might have the same answer) is why the media hasn't had a sustained focus on FDA failures. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rare earnest sports tweet: I dunno if they're going to win the title but I don't get how anybody watches this Celitcs team without realizing they're *really* good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I'd also guess that Democrats have particularly lost ground in recent years among the high-entrepreneurship group, which stereotypically also applies to a lot of Hispanic voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah in theory you'd want to look at a variable for entrepreneurship. A college dropout making 300k/year as a software engineer for Google is probably more D than a college dropout making 300k running a contacting business. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @CitizenCohn: @NateSilver538 Consistent with the (admittedly limited) sample of Trump supporters I saw most frequently at his 2016 ralli… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Conversely, the most Democratic voters are those with very high educational attainment but modest incomes. Often true for professors, government workers, nonprofit workers, journalists. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In that sense it's not surprising that some tech leaders vote Republican. They have very high incomes but *not* necessarily that much formal education. Some are famously college dropouts or have "just" a BA, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Education and income are sometimes lumped together under "socioeconomic status". But they're different, politically. Increased educational attainment correlates with Democratic voting whereas increased income correlates with Republican voting *once you control for education*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Basically there's a spectrum in explanatory journalism: 1. Tell people *how* to think about an issue. 2. Tell people *what* to think about an issue. 3. Tell people *what* to *feel* about an issue. You and I mostly like to stick to 1 with forays into 2. The Current Thing is 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Wertwhile No, doesn't seem crazy. The Republican Party isn't very popular, either, and Roe reminders voters that they have a *lot* of power, perhaps making the midterms less of a referendum on Biden/Congressional Ds and more of a choice. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Nate_Cohn: One additional point: the effect on individual races may prove to be more important than its effect on the national politica… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

None of this, by the way, makes Democrats favorites in the midterms. It's one factor that could potentially help them, whereas there are a *lot* of factors that favor Republicans. But I don't think the polls so far tell us much about it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

3. Most polls now are registered voters, and don't account for turnout. So, there could be larger effects among likely/actual voters. Even if it doesn't fully close the turnout gap (likely to favor Rs) It probably reduces the chance that Ds face very low turnout as in 2010/2014. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2b. If/when Roe is overturned, that triggers a series of state laws that go into effect, parties hurrying to pass laws in other states, legal challenges, lots of women directly affected. The leak was not some one-off news. It will be a major story through November & beyond. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. You wouldn't necessarily expect the shift to show up all at once. Roe *hasn't* been overturned, *yet*. (I presume it will be.) High-info voters know about the leak, but lower-info voters might not, and they're more likely to be swing voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Polling is noisy, and the generic ballot is particularly noisy. If e.g. Roe shifts the political environments toward Ds by a net of 2 points, that's a fairly big deal; could save them a couple of key Senate seats. But that could take a while to show up in our averages. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing a lot of this sort of sentiment. "Well, there's been no big poll shift after the Roe leak, which means no big effect on public opinion". But I think it's misguided for a couple of reasons. 🧵 https://t.co/tfJ7ESUS1M — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@steveplotnicki Yeah, more or less. Or taking relatively benign half-truths and treating them as the equivalent of full-blown conspiracy theories. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheZvi I think that's a lot of it. But also there are people who think 1) their side is right about everything so it isn't hard to draw lines 2) it's all part of the same big 'intersectional' problem (e.g. for lefties, the problem is the GOP) so you need a "broken windows" approach. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like it should be easier for people to understand that overapplying the "disinformation" label to stuff that's standard-issue partisan spin makes it less credible when applied to the truly dangerous stuff, like conspiracy theories about vaccines or election fraud. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1—More moderate candidates win elections more often, other things held equal 2—Other things are not always equal so there are plenty of counter-examples 3—Some candidates defy easy categorization 4—"Electability" refers to general elections; primaries don't tell you much about it — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @Taniel It's a big lead and he was way ahead in polls too. There isn't too much suspense IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Primary liveblog tonight! — PolitiTweet.org