Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 3, 2022

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Thu May 19 14:34:17 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing a lot of this sort of sentiment. "Well, there's been no big poll shift after the Roe leak, which means no big effect on public opinion". But I think it's misguided for a couple of reasons. 🧵 https://t.co/tfJ7ESUS1M — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@steveplotnicki Yeah, more or less. Or taking relatively benign half-truths and treating them as the equivalent of full-blown conspiracy theories. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 18, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Polling is noisy, and the generic ballot is particularly noisy. If e.g. Roe shifts the political environments toward Ds by a net of 2 points, that's a fairly big deal; could save them a couple of key Senate seats. But that could take a while to show up in our averages. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2022