Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 3, 2022

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Thu May 19 14:34:18 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1. Polling is noisy, and the generic ballot is particularly noisy. If e.g. Roe shifts the political environments toward Ds by a net of 2 points, that's a fairly big deal; could save them a couple of key Senate seats. But that could take a while to show up in our averages. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing a lot of this sort of sentiment. "Well, there's been no big poll shift after the Roe leak, which means no big effect on public opinion". But I think it's misguided for a couple of reasons. 🧵 https://t.co/tfJ7ESUS1M — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2. You wouldn't necessarily expect the shift to show up all at once. Roe *hasn't* been overturned, *yet*. (I presume it will be.) High-info voters know about the leak, but lower-info voters might not, and they're more likely to be swing voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 19, 2022