Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I mean, Trump correctly realized (or lucked into the realization) that the easiest votes to siphon off from the broad Obama coalition were white non-college voters. And Dems have gone after college voters with progressive positions on cultural issues + e.g. student loan relief. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro It's not as though the status quo of ~20-40% masking in places that formally *required* it was persuading many people to mask up, either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin My favorite 7-train-to-Flushing-Meadows conversation (although to be fair, I think it may have been a 7-train *from* Flushing Meadows) was overhearing a guy complaining about how his daughter was having trouble in a sommelier program because she doesn't drink alcohol. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT I dunno, I follow discourse about political strategy as much as anyone and I don't remember hearing much along those lines. Also, if those strategists didn't view Roe being overturned as being reasonably likely, I'm not sure I'd trust their instincts on this issue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT I agree that it was a moral-ideological goal but I think you're underestimating the degree of motivated reasoning and I don't think the pre-Dobbs consensus among Republicans would have expected this degree of electoral backlash. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's something delightfully euphemistic about people saying that Aaron Judge is chasing the "Yankee home run record" or "American League home run record" when they really mean the not-credibly-suspected-of-PED-use home run record. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good paper, but I'll repeat my usual claim that especially in a two-party system, parties aren't really trying to have deeply ideologically coherent views, so supporting "some things Ds like" and "some things Rs like" doesn't necessarily signal a lack of sophistication. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is this a parody account — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Ed_Realist @mattyglesias Well, it would be more accurate if I had said that parents were responding to *partisan* cues (since I think there was nothing progressive about school closures). And I'd expect nonwhite parents to be at least as responsive to partisan (i.e. Democratic) cues as white ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @Ed_Realist I don't think family demand is endogenous from health officials/politicians/unions. Progressives heard for months from people they viewed as having the right politics & the right expertise that school should be closed. The experts began to reverse but the preferences were sticky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Patterico Yeah there's a lot of motivated reasoning behind the idea that elections are about getting out the base, since most political commentators today are strong partisans. An overcorrection from the past when commentary was very centrist and the CW was it was all about independents. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen He should just keep grinding out ABs as a player-coach with the Marlins or something and go for 763. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump is very actively involved in the election! He's holding rallies. He's endorsing (mostly bad) candidates. He's running, more or less, for 2024. And the seizure of potential classified documents at Mar-a-Lago is a major story. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ThisWeekABC: “Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by only one point there in 2020…But—and this is a theme you’re starting to hear a lot—the Rep… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade It's also *very* gay, *very* middle-aged and *very* liberal. I like Provincetown (sharing some of the aforementioned characteristics!) but it is quite possibly literally the worst answer to this question of any town >=1K population in America. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AllenKessler @AMFrankenberger @StefanBr93 @PokerNews Fair enough but I think it would spice things up a lot in the midgame and for medium stacks and generally make satellites more fun. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AMFrankenberger @StefanBr93 @PokerNews @AllenKessler A standard bounty would that too though! Probably balances out GTO incentives decently well to more resemble "real" poker. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AMFrankenberger @StefanBr93 @PokerNews @AllenKessler Why not just have satellites with a standard bounty format? e.g. $1500 for a $10k satty, 10% qualify and everyone has a $500 bounty? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Part of the problem is that actual expertise is a positive signal for argumentative quality but chest-beating claims of expertise are an extremely negative signal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The thing about claims of media bias is that the media's complicated so a lot of them are true. Does it have a bias toward both-sidesism? Yes. (Reactions to Biden's speech are a good example). Does it have a liberal bias? Yes, also. Which biases predominate depend on the context. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DKThomp: New ep: Breaking down the Democrats' massive midterm comeback, w/ @NateSilver538 Feat. - Is it a mirage? - Did Dobbs doom th… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The "midterm curse" (the president's party loses seats at the midterms) is a robust trend. But the opposition party almost always pivots to a new message. This year, the GOP hasn't really pivoted away from Trump at all. Is that a precondition for the midterm curse? We'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My column today is about how unusual it is for ex-presidents to be this involved in politics, and how Trump's creating a lot of problems for the GOP at the midterms. https://t.co/ABkiDRlMeL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@espiers Interesting! Or at least give parents that option. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AdamSerwer I don't think I ever claimed that strategic behavior *necessarily* means moderating your jurisprudence. But it sometimes does, and the calculation looks different after Dobbs, at least depending on what happens in the midterms. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AdamSerwer I'm saying overturning Roe is consistent with strategic behavior if you care about abortion a *lot*. Especially if you underestimate the degree of backlash, but maybe even if you don't. Not sure that's as true of overturning say Obergefell, where the convictions are less strong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's certainly not *always* this simple. But the fact that there was such a visceral, vicious reaction toward Oster and other advocates for in-person schooling, and that it produced once of the biggest policy disasters in a generation, is an important data point to keep in mind. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AdamSerwer To say that the justices are strategic doesn't mean that they don't have convictions. Rather, it means they may pick their battles, and consider electoral blowback, to maximize the chances those convictions translate into sustainable changes to the law in the long run. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @AdamSerwer That's fair, but I also don't know that the conservative justices would have expected Dobbs to trigger the reaction that it did. Certainly, Republicans and conservatives had "gotten away" with a lot in the past. So that may be a new element in their calculus going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AdamSerwer I don't think there's any way to know that, and the default should be to consider SCOTUS justices to be strategic political actors. Abortion was singularly important to the conservative movement and they may have been willing to make sacrifices they wouldn't for other issues. — PolitiTweet.org