Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ameliatd: I will take today's extremely dismal jobs report as an opportunity to remind folks that @fivethirtyeight is still collecting… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Very interesting data — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kpelton I don't think there's a straightforward way to translate positive test rates into the percentage of cases caught. The general consensus seems to be that we're maybe catching only 1 in 10 infections, but that will vary by time and place. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Positive test rates now under <10% in New York State. (9.2% statewide and 10.2% in NYC.) That's pretty remarkable progress considering these numbers were once 50% (NYS) and 60% (NYC). Unfortunately, this progress isn't being replicated elsewhere. https://t.co/1w2VrzC4FG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The UK's testing has really spiked, as has the US's, which is a big part of the reason (in fact, probably the entire reason) that their case numbers aren't going down. https://t.co/cCmpqIMcLl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @poniewozik: I also have no prediction on the election BUT it's a good point to keep in mind. The incentives in many fields, not just pu… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende I think there are a lot of places where infections *aren't decreasing*, which is concerning. But I agree that the actual increases seem to fall in those categories. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @mayasweedler: 🚨New episode of PODCAST-19 from the @Anna_Rothschild and @jakewhosagirl 🚨 Subscribe if you want FiveThirtyEight's measure… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @juruwolfe: The jobs report is awful at first glance, but it get worse as you dig into the details. So grateful to get to work with @ame… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pre-2016, the consensus would have been "Trump is probably going to lose"* but people were burned by 2016 so instead they have to invent creative theories for why bad moves for Trump are actually good for him. * I don't have any view on this myself until we launch our model LOL. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still too much 13-dimensional chess in coverage of Trump. Creating the illusion the economy is going to rebound sharply when it doesn't would seem like really *bad* move for Trump's re-election prospects as compared to managing expectations down and celebrating small gains later. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with doing cross-country comparisons is the huge amount of variation *within* countries. Quebec may wind up with a similar death rate (per capita) to Italy (it's already ~2/3 of the way there with no clear peak yet) while Manitoba looks more like New Zealand. https://t.co/e54S7oU499 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ProfEmilyOster: @mattyglesias @jeffhauser @NateSilver538 And now I have COVID! https://t.co/wXVtsH1y3a. Like the books, but for COVID… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BLS_gov: Nonfarm payroll employment falls 20.5 million in April; unemployment rate rises to 14.7% https://t.co/1Y9cSWJUIB #JobsReport #… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

An corollary is that if you've tried to derive/calibrate what the *actual* expert consensus is, it has tended to be an extremely reliable guide to most of the major parameters around coronavirus, but the public impression of what experts think has been less so. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For various reasons it does kind of feel like the NFL is going to be a material factor/flashpoint in discussions about re-opening. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@RobertB41188300 @mattyglesias @CT_Bergstrom @trvrb @mlipsitch @nataliexdean @spwells @ScottGottliebMD @GaetanBurgio It very much varies on an individual basis and I think most of the people you mention have been wonderful but deliberately trying not personalize this too much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah, and to be fair there are a lot of people who are being thrust into the spotlight for the first time and haven't confronted these types of considerations before. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's been too much "we don't want to scare people" and its alter ego cousin "we don't want to give people a false sense of complacency" going around since the start of the pandemic and it's probably made matters worse than just communicating as straightforwardly as possible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, the patterns remain the same: —Deaths remain roughly at a plateau, with daily fluctuations due to reporting issues —Raw number of cases slightly declining but ~steady if you remove NY —Tests increasing significantly —Positive test rate declining, even if you exclude NY. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Meanwhile, the deaths number partly reflects NY reporting about ~700 nursing home deaths that it hadn't confirmed originally, but which may not have occurred all that recently. There may be more of this in the future in NY and other states. https://t.co/4NLLLpiEbn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Both the # of deaths and the # of tests are new daily highs, although there are caveats about both. Test numbers can bounce around a bit from day to day because of inconsistent reporting; some states report negative tests in batches: https://t.co/fwUjYcvsyX — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 2,746 Yesterday: 1,949 One week ago (4/30): 2,138 Newly reported cases: T: 28K Y: 25K 4/30: 29K Newly reported tests: T: 319K Y: 242K 4/30: 230K Positive test rate: T: 9% Y: 10% 4/30: 13% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another parallel between polling and coronavirus is that the outliers get more media coverage than the central trend. So it seems like we ping-pong between "OMG VACCINE IN 6 MOTNHS!?!" and "DEADLY MUTANT STRAIN TAKING OVER!" when neither describe the more likely, robust outcomes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 Yeah, for sure. We're well past the point where we're going to get anything resembling a good (even under the circumstances) outcome. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 I think there are some in-between scenarios like: some states are able to contain it, and some aren't, and by the second half of the year, treatments don't work miracles but are able to reduce the fatality rate by 30-40%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a lot of swings back in forth in the mood of media coverage around coronavirus, depending on e.g. which models get highlighted. The fact is, though, we've come pretty close to consensus estimates. Most experts thought it would be bad, and it has been. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is actually almost identical to what experts thought in the same survey a month ago, when they expected 260,000 deaths, though with a slightly wider range (70K to 1.7 million). https://t.co/ij2siBJuDl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Experts expect around 250,000 COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by the end of the year, though with a huge range of possibilities between roughly 120,000 and 1.2 million. https://t.co/EkHEDRgv2Y — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd love to get more precise data on mask-wearing by state. These regional differences seem like they could be material. Also huge differences by country (interesting that it's low in Canada and the UK, two places that have had trouble bending their curves down). https://t.co/ChdgFB5mAT — PolitiTweet.org