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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Oct. 26, 2020

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Fri May 08 13:37:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still too much 13-dimensional chess in coverage of Trump. Creating the illusion the economy is going to rebound sharply when it doesn't would seem like really *bad* move for Trump's re-election prospects as compared to managing expectations down and celebrating small gains later. — PolitiTweet.org

Greg Sargent @ThePlumLineGS

I feel like it's still not properly understood that the push to reopen society isn't really about saving the econom… https://t.co/p8QZAqAE6P

Posted May 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One problem with doing cross-country comparisons is the huge amount of variation *within* countries. Quebec may wind up with a similar death rate (per capita) to Italy (it's already ~2/3 of the way there with no clear peak yet) while Manitoba looks more like New Zealand. https://t.co/e54S7oU499 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pre-2016, the consensus would have been "Trump is probably going to lose"* but people were burned by 2016 so instead they have to invent creative theories for why bad moves for Trump are actually good for him. * I don't have any view on this myself until we launch our model LOL. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted May 8, 2020 Hibernated