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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
But testing *is* increasing (a record test day) and the positive test rate has been fairly steady, raising some question of whether we're plateauing or still rising. It may be a mix: Plateaus in some of the worst-affected states, but rises elsewhere. https://t.co/QuTnMuFuSe — PolitiTweet.org
The COVID Tracking Project @COVID19Tracking
Cases are moving up not only because of the known hotspot states, but because the surge is broadening. Nine states… https://t.co/xY6MkLanql
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Welp, a record for new cases. And deaths stayed below 1,000, but just barely. Seems likely (perhaps inevitable) that we're going to re-cross that threshold one of these days, which we haven't seen since late May. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 977 Yesterday: 855 One week ago (7/9): 867 Newly reported cases T: 71K* Y: 65K 7/9: 59K Newly reported tests T: 831K* Y: 756K 7/9: 700K Positive test rate T: 8.6% Y: 8.6% 7/9: 8.4% * record — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @everyword: leading — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @everyword: democrat — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @everyword: shows — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @everyword: poll — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @geoffreyvs: I looked at our historical polling data from 2016 as of same point 4 years ago & compared Clinton to Biden in our current a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @geoffreyvs: I looked at our historical polling data from 2016 as of same point 4 years ago & compared Clinton to Biden in our current a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Not much color to add. Everything pretty flat versus last week. A big question is *exactly* how much reported deaths lag reported cases, because different answers to that question would lead you to different conclusions about how much more you'd expect deaths to rise. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking Newly reported deaths Today: 855 Yesterday: 736 One week ago (7/8): 897 Newly reported cases T: 65K Y: 63K 7/8: 62K Newly reported tests T: 756K Y: 760K 7/8: 627K Positive test rate T: 8.6% Y: 8.3% 7/8: 9.9% — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, most of the live-caller polls are listing results among registered voters; NOT yet likely voters. The likely voter polls may be a bit better for Trump. Our average (Biden +9.1) shows results on a likely-voter basis, meaning it adjusts registered-voter polls toward Trump. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A lot of polls today! Our average shows Biden up by 9.1 points, which is similar to recent days. The live-caller polls have shown his lead growing, while the online polls have shown it steady/slightly decreasing, so it mostly evens out. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/LfjL9JzK97 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A lot of polls today! Our average shows Biden up by 9.1 points, which is similar to recent days. The live-caller polls have shown his lead growing, while the online polls have shown it steady/slightly decreasing, so it mostly events out. https://t.co/3BVg6fbI7K — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's also a bit of tension between the "Trump support is understated because of enthusiasm" theory and the "Trump voters are too shamed to admit they support him" theory, both of which you hear versions of fairly often. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's just one poll. The average poll shows it closer. There's no evidence for the "too shamed to admit they support Trump" theory though. — PolitiTweet.org
Noah Smith 🐇 @Noahpinion
More seriously, remember that this is just one poll, and a lot of the gap is probably just Trump supporters being t… https://t.co/HbNuDuOkTw
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @BenjySarlin: @Neoavatara @chrislhayes @NateSilver538 Well this sure is a data point https://t.co/EyYwmumjR8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Obviously the presidential toplines are what's going to get attention here, but this poll shows a majority of Southerns now think of the Confederate flag as a symbol of racism rather than "Southern pride". Rapid shifts in opinion on these issues. https://t.co/DziRa8lZRW https://t.co/Aw56KFhKOP — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I continue to wonder if Trump turned the tide *against* school re-openings, especially in liberal cities/states. — PolitiTweet.org
Pradheep J. Shanker @Neoavatara
This is a big one IMHO, because San Francisco is in a much better position than most big cities to consider opening… https://t.co/MytVjnph0I
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@NickRiccardi @AlecMacGillis I think it's debatable whether there's been a re-assessment. In a lot of ways, we're doing the Sweden strategy, we just don't want to admit it. The current mood is toward more restrictions, but given that cases are spiking again (not just plateauing) that's understandable. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@NickRiccardi @AlecMacGillis I think even if there are only marginal improvements, there may be a reassessment of risk-tolerance. Especially if winter is harsh (which I think it may be), there may be a strong societal desire to "get back to normal" by spring. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@NickRiccardi @AlecMacGillis There's lots of reasons to think the situation would be improved by next spring. Vaccines, treatments, antivirals, rapid testing, and possibly lower susceptibility (depending on how long immunity lasts). — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't mean to be a downer. But I think The Discourse might be improved by acknowledging fighting this thing requires diligence, patience, good governance, great science, and maybe a bit of luck. And where good governance is lacking (🇺🇸), you need extra of the other qualities. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In a slightly different category are middle-income countries like India and South Africa that initially imposed harsh lockdowns when they had low caseloads (i.e. there was no real first wave) but relaxed those lockdowns and now aren't doing all that much to fight back. https://t.co/gcL9rDAxa5 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Be careful about premature victory laps. A lot of countries that had once seemed to have COVID under control are now having issues. Israel is the one where things have spun very out of control. Others here may be more containable. https://t.co/iFTq3tnDJM — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'd also note that we haven't had a lot of live-caller polls since July 4, and I'd imagine we'd get more of those over the course of the next week or so. https://t.co/mLrIRyPp4F — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
Monmouth in PA at 11AM will be our first live interview poll in a while. It's also nice because PA has been sort of… https://t.co/ZY5RCtslOH
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Trump has actually gained back a smidge of ground in national polls against Biden (Biden now leads by "only" 8.7). But, Trump's approval ratings on coronavirus continue to worsen so I wonder how real/sustainable that is. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @sfrostenson: Two charts on why Trump -- not Biden-- has the enthusiasm problem; TLDR a LOT more people dislike Trump than they dislike… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Preemptively angry at the "actually, the pandemic was a good thing!" takes from 2027. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So, we'll see. One thing to keep in mind is that even if there is a plateau, it might be an awfully long and bumpy one since states may not be doing enough to actually squash the curve. Arizona now has an estimated Rt of ~1 for example. You need to be <1 to see cases decrease. — PolitiTweet.org
