Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure why people are surprised that the RNC is having ratings problems when this is the sort of evening lineup it trots out. https://t.co/2VZPhq68nA https://t.co/PSOU2h5WF3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FrankLuntz: In most states, USPS recommends requesting your ballot by 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝘁𝗵 and mailing it back by 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟳𝘁𝗵. https://t.co/vP… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As @Dereklowe points out this could be a problem for vaccines too. Clickbait headlines will seize at any claims of people getting sick after vaccines, even if the incidence is 1/100,000 (and even if the vaccine isn't the cause of their illness). https://t.co/IP1gkJ0yFZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most Jewish districts: NY-3 (Northeastern Long Island outside NYC proper): 18% NY-4 (Southeastern Long Island outside NYC proper): 17% FL-21 (Palm Beach, etc.): 16% CA-30 (San Fernando Valley): 15% IL-10 (Northern Chicago burbs): 13% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Districts with most mainline (non-evangelical) Protestants: VA-7 (Central VA / Richmond suburbs): 29% SD-AL (South Dakota): 28% ND-AL (North Dakota): 27% TX-4 (Northeast Texas): 26% MN-7 (rural Northwest MN): 25% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most Catholic districts: NY-2 (Central Long Island): 55% NY-11 (Staten Island): 47% NY-1 (Eastern Long Island): 45% IL-3 (SW Chicago suburbs): 42% NY-26 (Buffalo): 39% — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Congressional districts with highest percentage of atheists/agnostics/people who say they have "no religion". CA-13 (Oakland/East Bay): 47% CA-12 (SF): 46% WA-7 (Seattle): 46% MN-5 (Minneapolis): 45% WI-2 (Madison): 45% Source: CCES, 2014-2018 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @mattyglesias I think it partly comes down to who wins the election. IMO there's some blue-state risk-aversion that's prudent, but also some that reflects a perhaps-not-*entirely*-rational reaction to Trump, and that could fade a bit if Biden wins. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @mattyglesias If there's a vaccine is that is say 80% (but not 100%) effective and people have had a chance to take it, then I think it would be absolutely insane to keep schools closed. I'd think a very large majority of other things should be open in that case, too, but especially schools. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Masks aren't very costly so I'd have no problem with continuing to recommend those even if a vaccine makes things a… https://t.co/XVREavslg0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some of this is prudent. Vaccines may take a while to roll out. The first ones may not be super effective. But there needs to be some cost-benefit analysis. If a vaccine "substantially blunts the frequency of severe disease", the calculation changes. https://t.co/FPvUTFfIUz https://t.co/jJv9CEFkxL — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DKThomp @conorsen Certainly it influences the news media. I guess more broadly one can (perhaps too generously) lo… https://t.co/gifWeIOpFD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @DKThomp I mean, I think one could argue the cultural hegemony of coastal central cities (and I say that as someone who loves NYC) has broader electoral implications than migration patterns per se... and also that the cultural hegemony may be more likely to change than migration patterns. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @DKThomp I mean it's kind of a toss-up between him, you and @mattyglesias. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've seen lots of "young college-educated professionals will flee NYC and SF!" takes, many citing dubious evidence, but haven't seen anyone write the "flight of college-educated professionals from NYC and SF will narrow the Electoral College-popular vote gap" take yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing they could probably have done without, though, is all the time devoted to Trump family members. It's pure ego-puffery and having Don Jr. speak in between Haley and Scott doesn't allow a swing voter to suspend her disbelief and pretend Trump is a "generic Republican". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But in practice, Trump has an awfully tough sell with swing voters between the pandemic, the economy, and the fact that at least half the country thinks he's racist. Which explains why he's down 9 points in the polls, of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I were Trump, I would in theory weight the reaching-out-to-swing-voters part much more heavily. His base is already with him, and will likely turn out no matter what he does. But, it also isn't a very large base, even with its advantages in the Electoral College. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

All conventions are a mix of reaching out to wavering voters and shoring up your base. The D convention, especially Biden's speech, was perhaps 65/35 in the reaching-out direction. Night 1 of the RNC was about 50/50. From the list of speakers, the rest of the RNC might be 35/65. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @HelenBranswell: We've had a rough introduction, humans & #Covid19. But when I asked a bunch of smart folks what comes next, what I hear… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's Day One of the Republican Convention and we are doing the liveblog thing again: https://t.co/OXZG5o3Nmc — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also likely that we're doing a better job of capturing deaths than we once were, with more states accounting for e.g. probable deaths. So if you were looking at excess mortality data instead, it might show an even bigger spring vs. summer gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, the summer peak for deaths per day was only about half as high as the spring peak, even though there were about twice as many cases (although some of that is increased testing; probably a 50% increase in true infections per https://t.co/Qxu8rSPoV1). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've stopped doing the daily COVID threads, but it's worth noting the 7-day average death total finally fell back under 1,000 on Saturday after 26 straight days above that threshold. Still, it's been a quite stubborn number. Has fallen only to 983 from a summer peak of 1,142. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't want to get out of my depth, but a lot of what I've been reading suggests protection from T cells is likely to be longer-lasting than protection from antibodies, and that T cells may not prevent reinfection per se but could make it less likely someone develops symptoms. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're gonna have the first credible claim of reinfection then it seems like pretty good news that the patient was asymptomatic the second time around and developed an immune response quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If a vaccine happens to get approved through the usual regulatory channels before Nov. 3 that's great, but I don't think circumventing those channels would help Trump politically if it led to a bunch of FDA resignations etc. and it would undermine trust in vaccines going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, between governors who wouldn't want to be associated with Trump (e.g. Charlie Baker) and those who have big COVID problems, the lack of big-name governors is noteworthy. You've got Reynolds and Noem (not exactly big names), but no DeSantis, DeWine, Kemp, Abbott. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, Haley and Tim Scott are the 2 most impressive from a *very* short list of names that aren't really from the Trump wing of the party, and I don't know why you stack them both on a Monday. Gonna be a very Trumpy convention. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Scanning quickly but also only 2 people apart from Trump who have run for president before (Ben Carson and Rand Paul). And Ernst is the only speaker in a competitive Senate race; 2 if you count McConnell, I guess. — PolitiTweet.org