Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I had something specific to promote, like a book or a newsletter, I'd consider paying I guess, but even then I don't really get what the $20 buys me other than signifying that I'm a sucker. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm probably the perfect target for this, use Twitter a ton, can afford $20/mo, not particularly anti-Elon, but my reaction is that I've generated a ton of valuable free content for Twitter over the years and they can go fuck themselves. https://t.co/8zFEqeArnJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yeah and also the incentives for blue checkmarks to say on Twitter are already somewhat questionable, even though they're who drive most of the value for the platform (I'm here because I want to read Matt Y., not burneraccount696969). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jazayerli @DKThomp I wonder to what extent the emphasis on three true outcomes is unfairly blamed for the K rate. The K rate increased only modestly from 2000 thru 2009 as analytics were "taking over". Most of the rise came SINCE then due to changes in pitcher usage, development, pitch selection. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The Nets should trade Kyrie Irving for Ben Simmons. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is such bullshit. It didn't receive literally zero media attention, nor is that the claim. But it got bypassed in the news cycle very quickly. Was no longer the lede news story even the next morning (receipts below). https://t.co/cPCLveV4XI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MarcBodnick The Congressional softball attack was horrifying, so was the guy who wanted to kill Kavanaugh. Neither of those got that much media attention, either. So this absolutely is a "both sides" problem, I don't really give a fuck if that isn't expedient for your political viewpoint. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I definitely think this is true but also the lack of funding for future pandemic preparedness even after COVID has made me wonder whether we underreact to "hits" in some circumstances too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jessesingal I thought the tweet you're referring to was extremely well-phrased! It was very precise and economical about expressing her viewpoint. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Kind of shocking to me how comparatively little media attention violent attacks against political leaders get, and that runs from the Congressional softball shootings to the attack at the Pelosi household yesterday. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Again, my advice is not to donate to any campaign that engages in this sort of misinformation. It's a waste of money at this point in the cycle anyway. Donate to charity instead, or take your family out to a nice dinner, or just save the money. Don't support dishonesty. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @bendreyfuss: America's best pundit* has published the smartest take yet on Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter. These predictions are insig… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Do you think the following two statements are true or false? A) Twitter needs as much or more content moderation as it had pre-Elon. B) Content moderation decisions pre-Elon had a left-wing/liberal/Democratic bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @yeselson @EricLevitz Well except there were several special elections and ballot measures where Democrats did >= their polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, there's a lot more regional and race-specific variation in midterms than in presidential years. Even in years where polls/forecasts are basically unbiased, there are always some surprises, e.g. Dems doing terribly in Florida in 2018 despite a good night overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rs have a few of these districts too, but Ds have more, and in more competitive districts. This is worth around 1.0 to 1.5 points in popular vote margin for Rs, e.g. an 0.5-point R lead on the generic ballot would translate to a ~2 point pop vote win *even if polls are unbiased*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's not any one simple reason for the gap, it's a few different things that add up. Also not mentioned in the story: Dems will likely perform worse in the *House popular vote* than on the generic ballot because there are a bunch of districts where there's no D on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here is the comparison in the Senate, for instance. https://t.co/ohiBaFosHH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some qualifications on this, and more in some races than others, but our Deluxe model expects Republicans to outperform their current polling by ~2 points or so in the average Congressional race. https://t.co/znlDdARdJB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Like if you claimed that the Seahawks were better than the Bills, there would be no point in arguing with you, even if you had a few clever points about how the Seahawks are slightly better than I think and the Bills slightly worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn My philosophy on Twiiter and IRL too is not to get lost in details when someone is obviously directionally wrong. These are good polls for Democrats; your hed/lede characterized them in totally the opposite way, no amount of special pleading can close that gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn You already lost the argument with the side of yourself that knows better than this, so I don't think there's any point in *someone else* trying to convince you. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Dude, the Ds in your polls are collectively outperforming Biden, who won the popular vote by 4.5 points! I don't know if this is a case where you don't want to throw your editors under the bus, but these are good polls for Ds and the narrative in the story doesn't match the data. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @deepyy_: Ben Simmons stats just be that 3 digit number on the back of your credit card — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: @joshtpm Yeah this polling is a 9 out of 10 for Dems relative to expectations. It's also a small sample and House races… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah this polling is a 9 out of 10 for Dems relative to expectations. It's also a small sample and House races are fluky so doesn't move the topline outlook so much. But NYT has a bad habit of deciding on the narrative *before* doing the reporting and got caught red-handed here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@micsolana Yeah, I'm talking my book I guess since I've been a trending topic more than a few times, but they're basically a bat-signal for instigating idiotic pile-ons. And their existence makes pre-Elon Twitter leadership's claims about wanting to minimize abusive behavior less credible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So I'm skeptical of predictions of Twitter's demise so long as those curation tools remain strong. In fact, @elonmusk could make the platform more pluralistic by getting rid of the stupid fucking Trending Topics module, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not that hard to curate your Twitter bubble so that you're mostly seeing posts from people you vibe with (vibe with does not necessarily = agree with) even if your vibe doesn't match the "main" Twitter vibe. The Main Vibe is a fairly narrow subset of Twitter, in fact. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias The experience of watching a debate with other political reporters on Twitter (or even worse, at the debate venue) couldn't be much more removed from how a busy undecided voter who hasn't paid much attention to the race experiences it. — PolitiTweet.org