Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 21, 2022

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Fri Oct 28 14:38:05 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rs have a few of these districts too, but Ds have more, and in more competitive districts. This is worth around 1.0 to 1.5 points in popular vote margin for Rs, e.g. an 0.5-point R lead on the generic ballot would translate to a ~2 point pop vote win *even if polls are unbiased*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's not any one simple reason for the gap, it's a few different things that add up. Also not mentioned in the story: Dems will likely perform worse in the *House popular vote* than on the generic ballot because there are a bunch of districts where there's no D on the ballot. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Oct. 28, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, there's a lot more regional and race-specific variation in midterms than in presidential years. Even in years where polls/forecasts are basically unbiased, there are always some surprises, e.g. Dems doing terribly in Florida in 2018 despite a good night overall. — PolitiTweet.org

The "horse-race" metaphor/cliche exists for a reason, but I'd urge people to consider that races widening and tight… https://t.co/lega43RDGU

Posted Oct. 28, 2022