Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you were to treat the 0-to-10 scale as tantamount to a 0-to-100% chance of voting for the candidate — certainly a shortcut, so don't treat this as a proper horse-race poll — this group of voters moved from Biden 50-38 pre-debate to Biden 52-37 afterward, i.e. a 3-point swing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We asked the same voters both before and after the debate their chances of voting for Biden and Trump in a 0 to 10 scale. Not *quite* a horse race question, though close to it. https://t.co/XiSHoYfkCU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our post-debate poll with Ipsos is out, and it finds voters thought Biden did well and Trump did poorly. Also hints of a *bit* of topline movement toward Biden, though most voters stuck with their initial preferences. https://t.co/ZqIQTrcXWu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not a huge surprise given that he's also polling well in other predominately white northern states (e.g. Maine, Minnesota), but a couple of good polls for Biden in New Hampshire over the past couple days has brought his lead up to 9 points there. https://t.co/JqtuWx49pC https://t.co/NXFsxFmhuG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

100K tests statewide per day is about 50 tests *per zip code* in NYS per day and 350 tests per zip code per week, which really does give you a fighting chance of catching a statistically significant outbreak. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These numbers (back in the ~1% positivity range) are a bit less worrisome than the past couple of days. I don't know if NYC/NYS will contain a second wave, but one advantage of doing so much testing (100K tests/day statewide) is that you can isolate clusters very quickly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ClareMalone: Post-debate pod recorded last night is up (found here or in your regular feed). https://t.co/u7zmXxcR3q — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Debate commentary is hard for newsrooms that adopt a "view from nowhere" because it's hopelessly subjective. Of course, it gets a lot of eyeballs, so few outlets take a pass (538 included). But there was a lot of *news value* in those things the president said—or refused to say. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On decorum alone, it was one candidate (Trump) doing most of the interrupting. But the headlines are/were about the president (1a) refusing to commit to respecting the results of the election and (1b) declining to denounce white supremacist groups. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Said this in the heat of the moment last night, but upon reflection, the "both sides" framing a lot of media outlets initially went with last night feels like even more of a misfire. https://t.co/JfkkaZleiH https://t.co/5FG85ciMBg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi Right, yeah. It does seem likely to me that rejection rates are higher when a lot of people are voting by mail for the first time. But the mail balloting states tend to have high turnout, net of rejections. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Especially given that a common Twitter hot take is that mail voting is too risky because of higher rates of ballot spoilage. It may be that the ease of mail voting makes it a positive on balance for whichever party does more of it, net of ballot spoilage. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I *mostly* think this is something GOP strategists *shouldn't* worry about, and that the large Democratic edge in the mail/early vote likely cannibalizes their Election Day vote, but it's interesting that GOP strategists *are* worried about it... https://t.co/MYAys0ZlVj — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just in case this isn't clear enough yet, I think there's likely to be a fairly direct trade-off between the chance that Trump can win the election legitimately, and the degree to which he tries to pull from the authoritarian playbook by seeking to undermine the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Just in case this isn't clear enough yet, I think there's likely to be a fairly trade-off between the chance that Trump can win the election legitimately, and the degree to which he tries to pull from the authoritarian playbook by seeking to undermine the election. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Whether it's "rational" or not is hard to say, but Trump deciding to completely delegitimize the process would be in line with his recent actions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Both takes are bad, but "will Trump pull out of the second and third debates?" is a much better take than "will Biden pull out of the second and third debates?". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Nobody, including the Trump campaign, seems to be countenancing the possibility that Trump could win the popular vote. And perhaps after tonight they increasingly won't countenance the possibility that he could bring the swing state polls into a rough tie by Election Day, either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Storylines like: 1. Could Trump win the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote by 5 points? 2. Could there be a huge polling error in Trump's favor? 3. Could Trump steal the election? Are legit things for Dems to worry about! But also a sign of how bad Trump's doing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd Well, we're doing our own poll also, but the polls out so far seem to suggest I was right in gauging the public's reaction instead of the "both sides were equally bad" framing. https://t.co/PJAAdYO2pu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump could still win by trying to drag Biden down, but that didn't really work either, according to this poll, despite Trump throwing the kitchen sink at him and Biden not being particularly sharp. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, the toplines on this poll weren't great for Trump to begin with, but if the debate further entrenched negatives about Trump, there's probably no longer an opportunity for him to turn them around. Then again, those negatives were pretty darned entrenched to begin with. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @daveweigel: Trump closing with the issue you hear about in every blue collar diner - the Brooklyn post office snafu that delayed result… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure why trying to fight the debate to a messy, unwatchable draw is supposed to be a good strategy for Trump when he's 7 points behind in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our debate liveblog is up. Perhaps the most important night of the general election campaign except for Election Night itself? https://t.co/JfkkaZleiH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our debate liveblog is up. Perhaps the most important night of the general election campaign except for Super Tuesday? https://t.co/JfkkaZleiH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@FiveyFox Shouldn't you be focused on the debate, Fivey? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes The state and city have their own data that often doesn't match and I'm not entirely sure why. The city generally shows a slightly higher positivity rate than the state does for NYC. https://t.co/FzTtPAVIGR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pete_wells If anything, people doing outdoor dining during the pandemic have seemed extra gregarious and social. There are fewer of the "we went out because we didn't feel like cooking but we're slightly miserable and checking our phones" couples. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie @conorsen It's also fairly low-density and very outdoors-y in the spring/summer. I don't totally know what to make of it, but certainly seems like they could have problems as it gets colder. — PolitiTweet.org