Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are lots of philosophical and technical questions about what a polling average is supposed to represent exactly, especially after potential inflection points. My guess in the short run is Biden's lead is more likely to increase than decrease in our average, but we'll see. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The two fully post-debate polls are Biden +13 (Change Research) and Biden +9 (Ipsos). He's also had some strong national polls that were *conducted* before the debate but were *published* yesterday or today after the debate. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden's lead is up to +8.2 in our national poll average, though it's a bit of a weird moment to calculate an average. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/VcQPVY8o39 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So... is Trump going to self-quarantine? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @JenniferJJacobs: NEWS: Hope Hicks, who traveled with Trump aboard Air Force One to and from the presidential debate on Tuesday, and to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if you're trying to analyze the data later, it's not as though NYC went from 0% indoor dining on Sep. 29 to 100% on Sep. 30. It's more like it went from 0% to something like 5% or 10% of pre-COVID indoor dining capacity. This will almost inevitably ramp up over time, however. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's 25% max capacity. Some restaurants are doing it, but many remain closed, outdoors-only, or takeout-only. I'd guess maybe a third have any tables indoors. And for the time being they're being careful, with tables well spaced out and usually near windows. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC opened indoor dining yesterday and a lot of people will probably argue in a few weeks that it has/hasn't increased COVID-19 spread. Having walked around the city a fair bit, I'd advise people to be cautious with those claims because the steps *for now* are pretty incremental. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other full post-debate poll we have today is a Biden +2 in Georgia. Not *that* different from other recent polls of the state. But this firm had Trump +7 in late August and +3 in mid-August so a pretty big swing to Biden. https://t.co/nLw1W6A5qI — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I mean... it's likely that some of these polls are outliers. But it's worth keeping in mind that the last two elections in which the country was in real bad shape (1980, 2008), there was a fairly sharp break away from the incumbent party in the last month of the campaign. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @jbarro: I think the characterization that Trump executed a DDOS attack on the debate is more or less correct, but Trump is trailing so… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

https://t.co/ojFD7NEnrn — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jameshamblin Also wonder what kind of ventilation you get in igloos. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jameshamblin Outdoor dining will still be allowed indefinitely and been seeing an increasing number of places "winterize" their outdoor seating by putting up more coverings, awnings, semi-enclosed tents, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Redistrict LOL, no. Wasn't directed at you. Though also wasn't directed at the person I non-subtweeted about earlier! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Welp, we've got a Biden +13 in the first post-debate national poll. Perhaps a bit of an outlier but hard to say without other post-debate polls. https://t.co/Rbes2qEElR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you don't do any reporting, have never demonstrated any insight about politics, and don't even write particularly well, you'd think you could at the very least understand that 20% ≠ 0%. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Close call sometimes when there's a stupid article/study/etc. making the rounds that you could persuasively debunk with some effort but you also risk Streisand Effecting it by giving it more attention. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Big fall in disposable income reported in August, which may reflect stimulus payments lapsing. This is one of the variables in our economic index, which still gets a small amount of weight in our forecast, so hurt Trump's win probability a bit. https://t.co/hQc3zPXZBQ https://t.co/rrTFUMyNQH — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What if there are shy Trump voters but they're too shy to vote? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not going to do the usual tweetstorm on this story, at least not for now. It tries to cover a lot of ground, so go read the whole thing. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump’s chances are dwindling. That could make him (more) dangerous. https://t.co/xA5flUnunM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if there's some sort of "shy Trump voter" story here, somehow those voters weren't shy in April but they are shy now, all of the sudden. This does look a lot like persuasion, especially since these are fairly elastic states with a lot of Obama-Trump voters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's interesting in these Midwestern states is that Biden's polling has really tended to improve on them over the course of the cycle. On April 1, he was 5 points down in Iowa, only +2 in Pennsylvania, +3 in Michigan, +1 in Wisconsin. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Biden has pulled slightly ahead in our Iowa polling average, though Trump still narrowly leads our Iowa *forecast*. https://t.co/yWu0aQzGu2 https://t.co/NDk9F0hUSR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you squint, you could say polls for the past couple days have been particularly poor for Trump, especially if you know the pollsters (i.e. some generally R-leaning pollsters showing him with comparatively poor results). But, not enough data to be sure. https://t.co/de6e1opDuN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One unfortunate factor about the timing of the debate is there are a couple of important stories—Trump's tax returns, and his refusal to commit to a peaceful transition—where you'd like to have seen what effect they have in the polls. Now we likely won't get a clean read on that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our *forecast* is a bit more skeptical of Biden's chances in these states than the raw polling averages (it has Trump +9 in SC and +8 in AK), but still... https://t.co/XtdsQtuNyB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

South Carolina (Trump +6.6) and Alaska (Trump +4.4) now polling closer than Michigan (Biden +6.9) and Wisconsin (Biden +6.8). https://t.co/UsJEKmHCAW https://t.co/PTx5Gos9jr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Much more from my colleague Laura Bronner here. Again, the big theme is the stability of the race. But based on this poll, the race doesn't seem super likely to tighten as a result of the debate, and Biden's lead plausibly could widen. https://t.co/gyzS7wqAuZ — PolitiTweet.org