Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 Trump won it by ~7 points in 2016, so if there's a 7-8 point uniform swing toward Biden vs Clinton (as current national polls imply) then you'd expect it to be pretty competitive. Seniors have voted GOP every year since 2004 but usually by narrow margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I don't think it's too crazy. COVID might be an especially big deal to older voters. Plus, Biden is an old dude himself who is a throwback politician in a lot of ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@phl43 I had to look this up recently and Biden's up by about 5 points in an average of recent polls of voters 65+. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, there's been lots of uninformed speculation about how the networks will handle election night. With decision desks staffed full of smart and competent people & lots of advanced planning (election night is a *very* big deal to networks) they're not the big source of concern. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @smotus: Yes, definitely put all your money on a model that has Trump winning New York and Hawaii. https://t.co/bEs5SjEqTw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are decent numbers of Biden yard signs in the NYC suburbs tbh which aren't predictive of anything but it does seem like maybe Dems who wouldn't have bothered with yard signs in the past see them as a quaint, welcome symbol of normalcy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 2016, 18% of voters disliked both Trump and Clinton, and their votes went 47% Trump, 30% Clinton, 21% third-party. If this year those voters go 60% Biden, 30% Trump, 10% third-party, Biden would win by 10-11 points, i.e. about his current margin in national polls. https://t.co/pHad4mxxIZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Or to flip this around a bit: these were some of Hillary Clinton's strongest groups (certainly Latinos and white women; Black voters more debatable). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheJedReport Yeah, fundamentally I don't think everybody gets that wearing a mask is about protecting other people as much as it is about protecting yourself. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, we put a *lot* of work into modeling these nonpartisan primary + runoff races in 2018, so while it's a fluid situation I think this should be a pretty decent benchmark for handicapping the possible outcomes. https://t.co/cMsalgQYVZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Warnock up to a ~25% chance of winning the Class 3 Georgia Senate seat, mostly because it now looks very very likely that he'll reach the runoff against either Collins or Loeffler. https://t.co/bZtICEpRsN — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Craig_A_Spencer @JuliaLMarcus Oh yeah she's great. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Craig_A_Spencer: @NateSilver538 Nate, if @JuliaLMarcus isn't one of your 100 epi follows, she should be. She's written a lot on why peo… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: @NateSilver538 Great question for @JuliaLMarcus! https://t.co/XkGo2i82AA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kumailn: @NateSilver538 Just say “Could you put on a mask? I might still be contagious.” — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is there advice anywhere on how to ask people to put on a mask when you get the sense they might be confrontational about it? I don't care if people wear a mask when they're running or whatever, but if we're sharing a tight enclosed space (e.g. train, elevator) that's different. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gabrielsherman I do agree it's one of his more likely post-election exit strategies (if he loses), for sure. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh. More likely he's panicking, is suffering from some lingering effects of COVID, is surrounded by people giving him bad advice, has never had particularly good instincts for winning general elections, and doesn't really have any plan from day to day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@StevenTDennis They could and probably would but it would look completely ridiculous and ensure that there was even more voter and media focus on COVID in the closing days of the campaign. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Ehh. The Landmark polls have generally been pretty good for Republicans relative to others in Georgia. About what one might have expected from this pollster at this moment IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DKarol: Also, it would restrict his ability to campaign, even if he has a very mild case. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Repeating myself and others here, but the reason Lindsey Graham won't get tested despite having been exposed to many COVID+ people is because if he reveals a positive test and has to quarantine the Amy Coney Barrett nomination could get scuttled. There is no other logical reason. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: How the model is responding to Biden’s double-digit lead in the polls —> https://t.co/NTVoa1sl6c — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Trump's share of the vote in Alaska in 2016 (51%) was similar to his share in Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and Texas, all of which are polling as toss-ups right now. https://t.co/CVGrQr4ZV3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If Biden's doing well among people who voted 3rd party in 2016, you wonder about Alaska, which had a *lot* of 3rd party votes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: Thanks to @mayasweedler, our How to Vote dashboard now includes links to the websites where you can track your mail ballot… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of what *might* be going on: Some of these middling-quality pollsters do a bit of herding. High-profile national polls (e.g. NBC/WSJ Biden +14) opened the floodgates for basically anything goes in national polls, but they may be herding to pre-debate averages in state polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It is worth mentioning that "gold standard" state polls (nonpartisan live caller w/cell phone) have been 1-2 points better for Biden than the average of all post-debate state polls. So there could be some bigger numbers for Biden coming as higher-quality state polls filter in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Oops, forgot Wisconsin in that table. Sorry, Wisconsin. https://t.co/4nbaSKxrVi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth noting that *before* the debate, state polls tended to be a bit *better* for Biden than the national polls, implying that he was ahead by ~8 points rather than ~7. So there's likely a bit of mean reversion here. — PolitiTweet.org