Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: At some point, perhaps only in my dreams, we will stop defining the best political journalists as the people who can get… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

They'e not sending their best — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do love though how this Axios thread refers to how *reporters* are out of touch with reality at the very moment the president's lawyers allege with zero evidence that there was a massive conspiracy by George Soros and Hugo Chavez to steal the election. https://t.co/0V0GLRaaqR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I did a segment on national TV about it! https://t.co/ish88LEeDv — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart @tylercowen @RobTerrin @AnnieDuke @milouness @ByrneHobart @seanlippel @mattyglesias @bobgourley @PTetlock I'd be first in line. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattGlassman312 Part of what I think makes it less complicated too is that this *precise* group of 4 senators have a lot of electoral immunity, to coin an expression. Murkowski's incentives changed a lot with the top 4 system that AK adopted. The other three possibly on their last term. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattGlassman312 l mean in some ways it might make sense for a Romney + Murkowksi + Collins + Manchin group to form *now*, because that way they have de facto control of the Senate regardless of who wins the Georgia runoffs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't *quite* get Democrats' cynicism on Romney, Collins and Murkowski. They're Republicans! They're often going to vote for conservative stuff! But Murk/Collins voted with Trump only ~1/2 the time in the last Congress. And Romney voted to impeach Trump! https://t.co/hdJRgWVME7 https://t.co/qQVJCQqcUi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AJentleson Right, yeah. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That doesn't mean he'd ever in a million years vote with the Democrats on, say, taxes. But on basic good-governance stuff—letting Biden appoint a cabinet, protecting against future elections from being stolen—he would. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Perhaps a bit far-fetched, but Romney actually has a decent amount of leverage, if he and one of Collins, Murkowski, etc. threatened to become "Independent Republicans" or what have you who caucused with the Democrats. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Yair_Rosenberg And I think you're right that people sort of perpetuated some overly optimistic signals of what could be accomplished with a 4-8 week lockdown. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Yair_Rosenberg Yeah. I mean, it was hard to be certain I guess—China seemed to do an OK job of containing it, and maybe it would prove to be super seasonal or something—but if you looked at the history of respiratory pandemics, "this is going to last a year+" was a reasonable expectation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I was fairly pessimistic about COVID early on, but there was kind of this naiveté that I think I (and other people) had about timing. Like no one wanted to say "this could disrupt life for a year or longer" so anyone who said some version of that caught my attention. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure if I can find the exact quotes, but I can remember @sciencecohen and @HelenBranswell saying things to the effect of "this is going to be with us for a long time" and that really sticking with me. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: Will Georgia stay blue? 🎧 New pod w/ @perrybaconjr and @bluestein https://t.co/3sBREcgXlW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MileHighBrendan @chrislhayes Trump underperformed the fundamentals by 4-5 points, according to our analysis. And I think it's telling that Congressional Republicans, who had more distance from the anti-democratic tactics, outperformed Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes It's not clear that it's 40-45% though. More like 50+% of Republicans but 25-30% of the overall electorate. And I'd argue that's a pretty relevant difference. https://t.co/IsVz4l88jp — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes That seems to be the conventional wisdom, but I see no particular evidence behind it. I can imagine swing voters not liking this very much. I can also imagine it depressing GOP turnout. Or maybe not. But I think people are too quick to attribute strategic goals to it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes That seems to be the conventional wisdom, but I see no particular evidence behind it. I can imagine swing voters not liking this very much I can also imagine it depressing GOP turnout. Or maybe not. But I think people are too quick to attribute strategic goals to it. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: Trump is very savvy at constantly forcing fellow Republicans to choose between 1. doing his bidding and therefore remaini… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Revisiting this: It's not as though Trumpism has been a particularly successful electoral strategy. But there's a degree of path-dependancy. If Republicans can win elections about half the time with it because of their structural advantages, they have less incentive to change. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think these elites are also deluding themselves if they think that, if an election eventually does get stolen (very very likely not this one, but say 2024/2028/etc) that they'll be able to go back to the sort of cushy public life that they once enjoyed. It would be total chaos. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

2) People need to get over their obsession with internal polls. They usually say the same thing as high-quality public polls. They usually don't tell you anything you don't know. To the extent they do, it may be a) spin or b) wrong. https://t.co/tyIZ8cJb5p — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Agree with this, and two additional points of context: 1) There's always the tendency to cast winning campaigns in the best possible light (and vice versa). FWIW, I do think Biden ran one of the better campaigns we've seen recently. But still, be wary of this halo effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved @MattZeitlin I think this dynamic was especially bad for COVID because coming up with a cohesive strategy sustainable over 12-18 months was always going to be incredibly difficult, so it was easier to just point toward Trump's (indeed mostly terrible/incoherent) approach and say "not that". — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically it says Trump was wrong about lots of stuff and didn't actually make it any easier to open up schools, but nonetheless Trump's expressed support for school-openings made Democrats instinctively line up on the other side. That seems largely correct to me. https://t.co/TuafxAVML1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People are slamming this column based on the headline but the article itself isn't nearly as trollish as the headline makes it out to be and it seems like a lot of people aren't actually reading it. https://t.co/RcXKdRs8my — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's hard to strike the right balance between, on the one hand, pointing out how the erosion of democratic norms around accepting election results is highly concerning in the long run, and, on the other hand, pointing out how desperate and pathetic this all is. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Was projected to go higher so something good seemingly happened to the Knicks for a change but look forward to discovering how it turns out badly in the end. — PolitiTweet.org