Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What I particularly don't get is any claim that Newsom has demonstrated anything impressive in the "electability" department. He just won re-election by 19 points in a state Biden carried by 29. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This claim that the coastal elite media just doesn't understand the charm of... Gavin Newsom?!? ... is extremely strange. https://t.co/FkWOFSPVDm https://t.co/BrMh9UanIu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateSilver538: I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL PERHAPS BACK OUR WAY INTO A 0-0 DRAW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not actually that much difference between a draw and a loss for the US in terms of advancing out of the group. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I BELIEVE THAT WE WILL PERHAPS BACK OUR WAY INTO A 0-0 DRAW — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Doing a tweet so bad that you later pretend it's sarcasm is kind of a power move, gotta respect the bluff. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AGHamilton29 Excuse me she's citing ***experts***. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

From the WSOP this summer. The reason poker is awesome is because you can wind up at a table where the guy two seats to your right works for an auto-body shop in the Chicago burbs and the guy one seat to your right is *Neymar*. https://t.co/4coTPA5D4g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Circa 1950-2015 both-sidesism was a shitty heuristic, but I've grown less confident since then that the alternatives are better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

10/10 election nerd tweet but Peltola-Sullivan gonna be interesting in 2026. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Prediction markets estimate only a 20% chance of a major Twitter outage in 2022, which is in pretty stark contrast to much of the tech press which has treated one as near inevitable. https://t.co/phhsjdjBKy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I think people demonstrate a higher understanding when they directly bear the consequences of those probabilities (financially, medically, etc.). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think "people don't understand probability" is true so much as that when there's a 70/30 probability of something, you can tell a story about the 70% or a story about the 30% and people tend to go with whatever story scratches their emotional or intellectual itch. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin California getting a bit less blue too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Meanwhile, *his* prediction before the midterms was a Twitter implosion "could make getting reliable information on this site during Tuesday's elections impossible." Completely wrong, Twitter had a smooth night on 11/8. https://t.co/6Tu5Oqhc2f — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Ted Williams wasn't aggregating polls" WTF are you even talking about? https://t.co/uh9rCJmpEi — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I love that this is the evidence this dude cites for why FiveThirtyEight was wrong. A 41% chance (which, FWIW, the conventional wisdom held was lower than 41%) happens. Not even a remedial understanding of how any of this works. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade At the high end, I think the analogy between crypto and real estate starts to work better, e.g. why certain parts of The Hamptons are phenomenally expensive. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@adamdavidson This attitude—OH NO, YOU'VE WEAPONIZED THE ENEMY WITH MEMES!—is exactly what my original tweet was poking fun at. I've been harshly critical of Elon's Twitter management at times too. People are complicated, social media is a complex ecosystem. Having a sense of humor can't hurt. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

🐬 🐋 🐬 🐋 🐬 🐋 🐬 🐋 🐬 🐋 🐬 🐋 🐬 🐋 🐬 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's more Wales flopping in this game than at Sea World. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Yeah, that's not a race we should be winning in the long run! Although election betting probably has an usually high ratio of public:sharp money. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SeanTrende It's also sort of hilarious that the hall monitors couldn't take a relatively lighthearted Sunday morning joke. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe I'm overgeneralizing from a sample of two or three people but, like, the most prominent "misinformation reporters" are both very partisan and very often spread misinformation. The whole category is 🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like seriously: unlike you, Ben, we actually take accountability for what we say. Our entire forecast track record over 14 years is here. We are good at our jobs, though it doesn't help to have reporters like you who are so clueless about probability. https://t.co/8oqu1On3q7 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is misinformation. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Gutless, but also shows a lack of strategic understanding. Would FIFA really give yellow cards to some of the world's best players for wearing vaguely pro-LGBT armbands? That would give far more attention to the cause and dominate coverage of the whole tournament. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Vibes is all some people got. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Chris_arnade It certainly isn't heaven. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The new LGA is so much nicer than the old LGA that I'm always mildly worried when I land their that I've died and gone to purgatory. — PolitiTweet.org