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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 20, 2023

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Tue Nov 22 19:03:47 +0000 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie I think people demonstrate a higher understanding when they directly bear the consequences of those probabilities (financially, medically, etc.). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think "people don't understand probability" is true so much as that when there's a 70/30 probability of something, you can tell a story about the 70% or a story about the 30% and people tend to go with whatever story scratches their emotional or intellectual itch. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 22, 2022

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Prediction markets estimate only a 20% chance of a major Twitter outage in 2022, which is in pretty stark contrast to much of the tech press which has treated one as near inevitable. https://t.co/phhsjdjBKy — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Nov. 23, 2022