Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hawley seems like the sort of politician who will be heralded by pundits as the new GOP frontrunner in some future election year and then will finish in 5th place in Iowa. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some thoughts on Georgia: https://t.co/gqMI9pQ9kK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky NYC is pretty close to the national average for the % of vaccine doses distributed, so this may indeed be fairly typical. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@emilybazelon LOL now you'll have to unskew the results. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@emilybazelon I thought it was a huge mistake at the time but it was good. It's a more natural length to express a relatively complete and even somewhat nuanced thought as opposed to aphorisms and snark, not that there's anything wrong with aphorisms and snark. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Don't mean to imply it's something that governors have sole control over, but they probably have more ability to influence things they do for other issues that can substantially affect re-election chances, such as economic conditions and natural disasters. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly people should vote governors in/out of office based on how fast their states are at administering vaccines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NAChristakis One hope is that we can get a lot of old/vulnerable people vaccinated before it becomes completely predominant in the US (if it is indeed more contagious). So it would mean more cases, but not necessarily quite as many deaths. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hypothetically, you could calculate the impact as something like this. Let's say the new variants increase the herd immunity threshold by 5-10%. And let's say we're vaccinating 5-10% of people per month. Not the end of the world but that means one more hard month next year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hypothetically, you could calculate the impact something like this. Let's say the new variance increase the herd immunity threshold by 5-10%. And let's say we're vaccinating 5-10% of people per month. Not the end of the world but that means one more hard month next year. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know if people are too concerned or not concerned enough about the British variant and other potentially more contagious ones. Experts don't seem concerned it will cause vaccines to fail or anything, but it could delay the recovery a bit in 2021. https://t.co/yGK2soDrUC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This was of course a very dorky podcast with Jessica and @dmorey, but dorky is good. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@PatrickRuffini I'm sure things will get better but they'll get better faster if there's more public scrutiny IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @thehowie: @NateSilver538 Locally, we are scheduling them too slowly (too long gaps between appts) IMHO. This is driven by fear of crowd… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Stuff like this is also useful, although subject to issues with reporting delays. What is West Virginia doing that, say, Kansas or California aren't doing? https://t.co/KzISbdaYKE https://t.co/nGBeM0WJZ6 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, I'd love to know this, too. Not enough staff to administer the vaccines? Bottlenecks because of a complicated queuing process? I imagine the answers are complicated. This is the sort of story where local newsrooms could do a lot of good by investigating the causes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I'll happily sign up for a Tuesday-morning-at-3am vaccine slot. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davidshor I don't think Loeffler is more moderate, though? Maybe less so, in fact? Her voters were somewhat more conservative than Collins's in November, per the exit poll. https://t.co/QipAUc2DlQ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

From NYC's data on how many people are vaccinated per day, it's looking like considerably fewer people are being vaccinated on weekends (and holidays) than weekdays. It seems like we really ought to be vaccinating as many people as possible 7 days a week. https://t.co/Bqt3U7oFG8 https://t.co/xPIQRtC0VG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, the best prediction comes from taking a ~2:1 ratio of the total-party margin to the top-two margin. Republicans won the total party vote by 1%, but Warnock won the top-two vote by 7%. That would imply that Warnock might actually have won a two-candidate race on 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our analysis of past runoffs find that, while the total vote by party is of course predictive of runoff results, the margin of the top-vote getter (in this case, Warnock) over the second-place finisher (Loeffler) *also* has predictive significance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's been noted that Republican candidates received more votes combined (49.4%) than Democrats (48.4%) in the Georgia Senate special election on Nov. 3. However, it's not clear that's the only/right benchmark. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The slow vaccine rollout is predictable but incredibly frustrating. Perhaps the new administration will come in with plans to improve things on Jan. 20. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pollsters are being🐔in Georgia, but this also reflects the incentives when they get way more shit for being wrong than credit for being right. You're left with a deficit of high quality polls in the state. With that said, kudos to the several pollsters that have ventured in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden Yeah, I guess what I'm getting at is that if the new variant increases transmissibility in children more so than in adults, it could maybe be complicated to figure out what the population-wide increase in transmission is, especially if a higher % of children had been susceptible. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As someone who's obsessively following the research on the new UK COVID variation, got a question for the smart folks on here ... how meaningful is it that nearly all the increase in positive test rates in the UK seems to be driven by people under aged 24? https://t.co/kSxasiuQPk https://t.co/bgCvvSMKN5 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: Allow me a brief, end-of-year moment to brag about my colleagues please ... The 30 pieces on @Chartbeat's "Most Engaging S… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: The @FiveThirtyEight newsroom is small -- we couldn't fill out an entire NFL roster -- but the team's skill and imagination… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @BrendanKeefe: Rasmussen is now literally quoting Soviet leader Joseph Stalin while suggesting Pence could simply refuse to count Georgi… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @pbump: love to be a pollster, conducting polling https://t.co/6ePrpMqMKy — PolitiTweet.org