Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 10, 2021

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Tue Dec 29 17:21:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our analysis of past runoffs find that, while the total vote by party is of course predictive of runoff results, the margin of the top-vote getter (in this case, Warnock) over the second-place finisher (Loeffler) *also* has predictive significance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's been noted that Republican candidates received more votes combined (49.4%) than Democrats (48.4%) in the Georgia Senate special election on Nov. 3. However, it's not clear that's the only/right benchmark. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, the best prediction comes from taking a ~2:1 ratio of the total-party margin to the top-two margin. Republicans won the total party vote by 1%, but Warnock won the top-two vote by 7%. That would imply that Warnock might actually have won a two-candidate race on 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020