Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 12, 2021

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Tue Dec 29 17:21:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Empirically, the best prediction comes from taking a ~2:1 ratio of the total-party margin to the top-two margin. Republicans won the total party vote by 1%, but Warnock won the top-two vote by 7%. That would imply that Warnock might actually have won a two-candidate race on 11/3. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Our analysis of past runoffs find that, while the total vote by party is of course predictive of runoff results, the margin of the top-vote getter (in this case, Warnock) over the second-place finisher (Loeffler) *also* has predictive significance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

From NYC's data on how many people are vaccinated per day, it's looking like considerably fewer people are being vaccinated on weekends (and holidays) than weekdays. It seems like we really ought to be vaccinating as many people as possible 7 days a week. https://t.co/Bqt3U7oFG8 https://t.co/xPIQRtC0VG — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Dec. 29, 2020