Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @laurabronner: TLDR: please don't call this a natural experiment on the effect of demographics on electoral performance https://t.co/c2… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Nate_Cohn: There's a case for taking the 'over' on the needle. It builds in tabulation errors, which we don't expect but definitely hap… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Prediction markets being quite a big more aggressive than the Needle. I trust the Needle more, of course. But note that they're directionally the same. The Needle (probably correctly) assumes more uncertainty. https://t.co/qpmkmQfImF https://t.co/2ZbD8MWGIk — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Polls close in 4 minutes! https://t.co/UqhI7558uo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ge🍑rgia Livebl🍑g: https://t.co/rCNUrEhd2h — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@youyanggu I know you've written about this but... yeah, that seems unlikely. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah. There are about ~200k detected cases in the US per day. But expert estimates & serology data (as baked into the @youyanggu numbers) suggest that we're only officially detecting about 1/3 of new infections, so 200k detected cases = 600k infections. https://t.co/RbErsq1WKD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One perhaps-useful benchmark is whether more people are getting vaccinated or are getting COVID. Yesterday, 430k doses ~= 215k people vaccinated since these are a mix of 1st and 2nd doses. But there were an estimated 600k new COVID infections per https://t.co/lpEWzLfxp0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Wow, yet again these anecdotal reports about turnout are confirming nearly all of my priors. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The non NYC parts of NY State are doing quite a bit better than NYC. https://t.co/MrxIwfTQKc https://t.co/ctXWk4wVJJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

No sign of improvement in NYC vaccine delivery in the first weekday after the holidays, with only ~9k doses delivered yesterday. https://t.co/Bqt3U7oFG8 https://t.co/Seh8Uo0qKa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: We looked at why Democrats can't win presidential or Senate races in North Carolina and explored whether Georgia 2020 wil… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wrote this last week back when the polling averages did show ~exact ties rather than these narrow D leads, but it should still hold up pretty well. There's also lots of other coverage on 538, and we'll be liveblogging tonight, so please join us! https://t.co/gqMI9pQ9kK — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Final polling averages: Ossoff +1.8, Warnock +2.1. (These are not forecasts; just a pure polling average this time.) https://t.co/jNFvD5ZNhd — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In many respects, in fact, this is a story about 2024 because *that's when the Republican 'coup' attempts would plausibly have a tangible likelihood of succeeding*. If you're interested in taking the story seriously, you should be interested in 2022 GOP primaries, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And, yes, sometimes you have to analyze the political incentives of the relevant actors, which may seem banal. And sometimes you have to assess the likelihood of success (exceedingly low). That is part of the story, and moreover, part of taking the story *seriously*. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I criticized the NYT and other outlets a ton from mid-2015 through mid-2017 for how they covered Trump, including this sort of "news analysis" piece that was prone toward tired tropes and false equivalencies. These stories have changed a LOT since then, in my view for the better. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's this lazy critique that "the mainstream media isn't taking the 'coup' seriously". Really? Have you actually read the articles that e.g. the NYT and WaPo are writing? This is the first article I found on https://t.co/BaFn25Z122 today. https://t.co/6rdADxOI98 https://t.co/gCwYlj7uA2 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki Also, the positive rate in LA County is around 20% right now. That is high and people should stay home, but many places around the country/world have been much higher at their peak. https://t.co/bKYAANfcaz — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I don't think there's much evidence for that. We are doing *some* genome sequencing so we'd probably have some degree of direct evidence for it. And as far as indirect evidence goes, there have been lots of weird hard-to-explain local spikes all pandemic long. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden It's probably all wishful thinking and my prior at this point is that B.1.1.7 is very bad news, but I do sometimes wonder if there's something to be said of the staying power of previous strains that have predominated for many months in many parts of the world. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden We've also had 10+ months to develop interventions against the previous dominant strains but little experience with B.1.1.7. e.g. If a new variant were more transmissible on surfaces it might have an advantage if people had gotten lax on hand-washing, but we could improve that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's something that's a bit extra audacious about somebody who has never been elected to anything in her life doing this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We don't have a forecast of this race, in part because our Congressional model relies fairly heavily on nonpolling data. If you factor in the "fundamentals" (hard to define in this case) I'm not sure how our model would rate this race. But a "polls only" model would say Lean D. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Getting beyond the point where you can say "Georgia polls show a tossup". They show that it's obviously anybody's race. But Democrats are ahead by around ~2 points over what is now quite a bit of polling. That's very close but not quite a 50/50 contest. https://t.co/jNFvD5ZNhd https://t.co/bclIoZ0hy4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @TIAreports: I honestly feel smarter just by being on this podcast. Plus I think I successfully didn’t let on how much I was fan-girling… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Yeah. I think society needs to have more mature conversations about the role of naturally-acquired immunity, though. And then another set of conversations about vaccine-acquired immunity as we collect more data on how much it protects others. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ahh, that gets a bit harder to justify. I don't 100% blame the NBA because the league is catering to public opinion and there are still a lot of people who haven't kept up with the science and believe stuff like "immunity fades after 3 months!". But still— https://t.co/h3X3BvYTjM — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing the league might think about doing is testing players for antibodies in these cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It really does seem like it's going to be a race between how fast the new variant spreads and how quickly we can get people vaccinated. I suppose I like the variant's odds, in the short run. But I don't think people should be fatalistic; speeding up vaccines could help a lot. — PolitiTweet.org