Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Hell yeah. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: Do Democrats have a shot at flipping retiring Ohio Sen. Rob Portman’s seat? @NateSilver538: “Democrats have a chance, it’… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @EricTopol: Bottom line: Await final data.. But this bolsters my confidence that JNJ vaccine is a major contribution for its ability to… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky B.1.1.7 does seem to have intrinsically higher R0, but vaccines look to be pretty effective against it and there don't seem to be many re-infection problems. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lymanstoneky One small thing, but it's not clear to me whether B. 1.351 has intrinsically higher R0 in a population with no COVID, or rather that it's Rt is potentially higher because it's better at (re)infecting people who got COVID classic or have first generation vaccines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @lymanstoneky To me, one question has always been what R looks like at say 80% of normal, i.e. most things are back, but people: * Shift some activities outdoors * Wear masks in crowded indoor spaces * Limit attendance at super-spreading events * Get tested often and stay home when sick — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @notdred: @NateSilver538 That 3m target also seems to line up well with the current US orders of vaccines. Then 200m additional mRNA dos… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, I can't find anywhere that has a comprehensive breakdown of vaccine delivery schedules. But I believe we're supposed to get 200m Moderna + 200m Pfizer + 100m J&J by the end of Q2, right? Less 50m that have been delivered already. That works out to about 3m/day. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At our current pace, it would take a year to vaccinate 80% of the country, assuming a 2-dose vaccine. (I'd expect the pace will keep improving.) But 3m shots/day seems like a useful benchmark. At that pace, you could give 80% of the country a one-dose booster shot w/in 3 months. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe instead of shots per day, it's also worth thinking about TIME: how long it would take to vaccinate the country. Here's a little conversion table for that, assuming you want to vaccinate 80% of the US population including children. https://t.co/OkeDlDknMq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interesting point of context: the US distributed 21m doses of the flu vaccine in a week (i.e. 3m/day) at the peak of our flu vaccination campaign last fall. https://t.co/nns0W0DSL4 https://t.co/SfrIbAlBlJ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner This is a completely normal way for election forecasters to behave, Isaac. And on that front, I'd like to announce that the party that will lose in 2022 is the one who's supporters fail to Venmo me enough money to buy a pony. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @MagsVisaggs: Modern Presidents George Washington https://t.co/CURJQB0kap — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this doesn't make much sense, especially given concerns (see article below) that banning outdoor dining tends to lead to riskier indoor gatherings between households instead. LA & California COVID policy has been very weird. https://t.co/tjHTlgVSl4 https://t.co/ZTMa7HsVsa — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshrobin Yeah, they said nearly all their SA cases were of the new variant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro Yeah, for sure. Especially when it comes to evaluating how well it did against severe disease. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's weird how this is getting contextualized. The relatively small (not statistically significant?) drop-off in effectiveness in South Africa seems like good news, not the huge decline we saw with Novavax. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's good to center the conversation around the fact that what we're ultimately trying to prevent is not any COVID but severe cases and deaths. And it's good to be reminded that we're in this for the long haul. "Normal" will come back but in fits and starts, not all at once. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is hard to articulate but it seems like the "messier" but nonetheless promising results from J&J and Novavax are making discussions about COVID a bit more rational vs the near-perfect-seeming ones from Moderna/Pfizer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While I trust the new administration to handle this better than the old one, Biden's national COVID plan didn't contain a lot of detail about how to deal with new variants. I just think the upside is really huge on formulating those plans ASAP. https://t.co/cz3MyhtSjg — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know, maybe we won't need it, but it certainly seems like the US should be preparing for people to be getting an additional booster shot of vaccine in fall 2021 or winter/spring 2022. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing sort of lacking in the Novavax data is how effective their vaccine is against protecting against *severe* cases from new strains. None of the cases were severe in the vaccine group, but sample size too small to draw much from that. https://t.co/VzGOFzp6Cf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @galendruke: The final 'Model Talk' of 2020 (Yes, I know it's 2021) https://t.co/SyjMDTOrCy — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: An updating calculation of President Biden's approval rating: https://t.co/4Kt6vJYtjD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara There are a few Midwestern states where cases have been falling a lot so I understand why they're tempted. But even there, the conversation is like a month ahead of where it should be IMO (and longer in other parts of the country). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara In the medium-to-long run yes, but when I've looked at other people's models or tried to sketch the numbers out myself, it's possible you wind up with a stalemate between vaccines ↓ transmission on the one hand, and new variants + relaxed restrictions ↑ it on the other hand. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, I'm pretty skeptical of the "have more restrictions in place now so you can have fewer later on" argument, but I think that might actually be true here given new variants, etc. Just really crushing the curve now could make for smoother sailing in spring, summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This point doesn't sometimes get made enough. Cases are coming down in the US, but they're coming down from VERY high levels. It would be really nice to maintain the 20% week-over-week drops we're seeing for, say, another 6-8 weeks. https://t.co/G47uXvwqbF https://t.co/U9MVEfxof4 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To be more precise, Biden's disapproval numbers are high by historical standards. It hasn't been uncommon for presidents to start out with a ~55% approval rating like Biden, but usually that would be accompanied by only say a 15% disapproval rating with many initially undecided. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While Biden's numbers are much better than Trump, who never hit 50% at any point in his presidency, there is some reflection of our partisan epoch here as Biden's numbers are low-ish relative to most pre-Trump presidents. — PolitiTweet.org