Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Feb. 17, 2021

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Thu Jan 28 15:09:21 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In general, I'm pretty skeptical of the "have more restrictions in place now so you can have fewer later on" argument, but I think that might actually be true here given new variants, etc. Just really crushing the curve now could make for smoother sailing in spring, summer. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This point doesn't sometimes get made enough. Cases are coming down in the US, but they're coming down from VERY high levels. It would be really nice to maintain the 20% week-over-week drops we're seeing for, say, another 6-8 weeks. https://t.co/G47uXvwqbF https://t.co/U9MVEfxof4 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 28, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara In the medium-to-long run yes, but when I've looked at other people's models or tried to sketch the numbers out myself, it's possible you wind up with a stalemate between vaccines ↓ transmission on the one hand, and new variants + relaxed restrictions ↑ it on the other hand. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Jan. 28, 2021