Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish there was more explicit thinking about the costs of different COVID interventions (NOT only economic costs; societal costs, costs to short & long-term well being, etc). The numbers below are placeholders that you can improve upon but in my head there's a matrix like this: https://t.co/kD3dYRAsLB — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think we need to retire the phrase "social distancing" because to some people it means "stand 6 feet apart on the grocery line" and to some people it means "never leave your home except for essentials" and those are radically different interventions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner Maybe lessons about doing things outdoors will have become more ingrained by then as compared with last year. Take a siesta midday and then have dinner outdoors at 9! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course maybe you can avoid this via a vaccine booster dose delivered in the autumn, and Moderna etc. are already trialing those. So that's good. But the US would need to be prepared to roll those out quickly rather than letting its guard down. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Part of me wonders whether in Northern Hemisphere countries with high vaccine availability, COVID cases could get pretty low in the spring/summer, but then make a comeback in the fall/winter, driven by seasonality + variants that render current vaccines less effective. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm still confused by what the consensus is on COVID seasonality (maybe there isn't a consensus?) but the data in these charts on how other coronaviruses behave seasonally is pretty interesting, tending to peak in December. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ryanabest: I watched over 200 Super Bowl commercials for my latest project at @FiveThirtyEight, categorizing and analyzing them all. An… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Why is Canada so slow on vaccines? Or Germany? A lot of countries that did comparatively well in fighting the pandemic are very slow with their vaccine rollouts. https://t.co/MrxIwfCflC https://t.co/cJ7nlJStD0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Not a surprise but a huge decline in Americans' life satisfaction amid the pandemic and everything else. https://t.co/W07iLkDUpy https://t.co/mWlPSM0n15 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot Also sorta interesting which counties look like college towns but don't actually have a high proportion of college students. Asheville, NC (Buncombe County) maybe the canonical example of this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@foxjust I think this underestimates the impact of other interventions. R0 in Milan in February 2021 or something when we know absolutely nothing about COVID won't be the same as when people are taking *some* fairly low-hanging-fruit precautions even as things get more back to normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliexdean: Oxford/AZ reports overall reduction in PCR positivity of 54.1%, but only 2% "vaccine efficacy against asymptomatic infect… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred I also recall lots of expert threads, comments, etc. which seemed to imply we should have some pretty strong priors on vaccines reducing transmission (though likely not as much as severe disease). Maybe the new study takes us from "very likely" to "almost certain"? — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm sort of fascinated by the gaps between what's considered canonical knowledge about COVID in high-prestige news outlets, and what you learn about it if you obsessively follow the research, e.g. preprints, experts' twitter threads, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Moderna had found evidence for this too, back in December. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @julia_azari: Tried to tease out the relationships among Trump, Trumpism and the GOP going forward in my latest @FiveThirtyEight piece h… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In case you're wondering, nearly all modern quintuples+ involve major fielding gaffes, but everybody just sort of agrees to ignore them in the official scoring as is already the case for inside-the-park home runs. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Austan_Goolsbee One of my pandemic goals was to learn more about cricket, but I have not succeeded at that yet. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pbump Oh yeah I'm in favor of that too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@pbump It incentivizes contact which I think would be good for baseball right now! — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Remember how exciting it was when Mike Trout hit the first octuple since 1932? (Though of course we can't forget when Juan Pierre hit for two sextuples *in the same game*, a more unlikely feat statistically.) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You should be able to keep rounding the bases as long as the ball is in play, e.g. make a quintuple. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The UK is vaccinating people about 5x faster than the EU and I'm kind of surprised we're not seeing more "this is making Brexit look good" takes. https://t.co/MrxIwfTQKc https://t.co/5QuI6Er8oD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Sinema? That's different since Arizona is much more purple and it's plausible a more progressive Dem could win in Arizona (or that Sinema could shift to the left a bit and still be fine). Lumping Sinema & Manchin together suggests this group isn't thinking clearly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This would be quite suicidal. Joe Manchin is literally one of the 2-3 most valuable Democratic senators, voting with the Democratic position much more often than you'd expect for someone from his state. Relatedly, probably the only Dem that can win in WV. https://t.co/Hw5lCGGeiC https://t.co/6XpzMpVCEr — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @kakape: This is probably the best news of the day, so savor those graphs: Remember that this is preliminary and we will have to wait a… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. In 2020, only one… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT NY did not have a particularly bad second wave, we're average or a bit above in vaccine distribution, we do a ton of testing, and our restrictions are fairly sensible. I have nitpicks. But mostly, NY was terrible in March/April (when Cuomo was being praised) and good thereafter. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DouthatNYT The article is full of examples of how Cuomo is a jerk to the experts, but pretty light on (recent) examples of cases where he defied the experts, at least in ways that were harmful to NY State. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ashishkjha: Am often asked about different vaccines and their efficacy Each trials tracks, reports efficacy differently Currently, we… — PolitiTweet.org