Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DavidNir @ShaneGoldmacher Yeah my main conclusion from spending way more time outdoors in cold weather than I ever have before is that wind > temperature. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SethPartnow Treating All-Star selections as basically "who are the best players in the league right now" (in roughly the sense of who would have the best RPM/RAPTOR/etc. projection in a game tonight) would create better differentiation from "who had the best season" All-NBA and MVP debates. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred @RidleyDM @conorsen I hope so. There's a real opportunity for the White House to show leadership on the various aspects of this problem (approval, distribution, persuading the public to get another shot). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, people are updating pretty rapidly. There's still B.1.1.7 to dodge in the near term and then B.1.351 in the medium term. I could see cases where we do win the footrace against the former but the latter causes issues in the fall/winter, especially if seasonality is strong. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @baseballot: That means the House is biased toward the GOP by 2.1 points (since Biden won the popular vote by 4.5) … which ironically ma… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @DKElections: BIG NEWS: We're excited to announce that with the release of Pennsylvania, Daily Kos Elections now has the 2020 presidenti… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think one of the things that made the @youyanggu COVID model good is that it was explicitly created with the goal of forecasting; many of the others (either the modelers or their institutions) seemed interested seemed in influencing public policy. https://t.co/XVvAGTbDBA — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good story but I kinda don't get how I'm still often reading stuff that's like "we're not sure yet if vac… https://t.co/dLUXUQ3aB3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Big news in 538land! https://t.co/0yhR32DnP8 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten OK so my recollection was totally wrong LOL! I think I just pay way more attention to the weather during a pandemic. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ForecasterEnten Is there data on the most consecutive days with snow on the ground? (I doubt it's a record or anything but I'm *pretty* sure I'd bet this is the longest streak since I've been in NYC). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EpiEllie You didn't see them? People can check out my follow list for themselves. I follow lots and lots and lots of public health experts. I talk to people online and offline. I track these debates very intensely. https://t.co/cVOPN6noPC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@EpiEllie Have no intention of getting into an argument, but this is just a very weird claim? I follow probably 100+ epidemiologists and public health experts, which you can pretty easily gather from looking at my following list. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah. Although in my admittedly small-sample one very brief visit to the South during the pandemic, I'm not sure that outdoors >>> indoors is as resonant as it needs to be. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Rt for cases though is as good as it's ever been. Currently 0.78 per my quick-and-dirty method of calculating it, down from 0.84 a week ago and 0.88 two weeks ago, though possibly some weather-related issues in reporting. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's a lot of attention to whether at some point variants will outpace vaccination/mitigation and cause cases to start rising. But it's levels and not just the trends that matter. If we can get cases down to say 25K per day from the current ~75K, a rise is much less costly. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Two consecutive days with the nationwide test positivity rate below 5%, the first time that's happened since Oct. 17/18. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb ...there also seem to be some complicated feedback loops in how individuals and governments look at the numbers and respond to the them. It's really good that we're able to track variants like B.1.1.7 so folks can make more informed decisions and let up on measures cautiously. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@trvrb I'm glad you're talking about the other factors too! I do think (understandably since behavior is what we have the most control over) there's *sometimes* overattribution of changes in case counts to behavior when those changes aren't evident in e.g. survey data. But... — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ZackBornstein: BREAKING: Perseverance Rover claims it was just dropping off daughters on Mars — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin 0.5 or 0.6%-ish given the age structure of the US was my understanding of the consensus, not accounting for any impact from vaccines or new variants. The whole thing is a moving target, in fact (was probably higher early on when we knew less about how to treat people). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin I'm all for humility/uncertainy when it comes to questions like these, but this is a very... heterodox view of what the COVID IFR is. https://t.co/UYbX7g7Vty — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another good thread on this subject: https://t.co/Fp0zswmAx1 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's good news that the good stuff is *currently* winning out (cases are declining by ~25% week-over-week in the US). Variants aren't having much of an effect yet, so this may not continue. On the other hand, there are a lot more gains to be had from vaccinating more people. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good thread here. It's really a race between, one the one hand: - increased community immunity from vaccines (and to a lesser degree natural infections) - probably some seasonality and - variants - behavioral changes (i.e. people relaxing as cases decline) — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Cruz's approval rating was already only 45% (against 44% disapproval) so flying to Cancun could really [shudders] land him in hot water. https://t.co/PrVrmxBRWV https://t.co/J7PqdcjOcu — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Cruz's approval rating was already only 45% (against 44% disapproval) so flying to Cancun could really [shudders] land him in hot water. https://t.co/ZcKxoHt7U6 https://t.co/hrVtobRG7g — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

LOL this article is amazing — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, Biden (and Fauci) are doing the underpromise/overdeliver thing enough that they're going to start to get a reputation for it, which may make it less effective as a rhetorical tactic going forward. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @owenlhjphillips: Pulled together a handful of different advanced NBA metrics to create a table comparing the leading MVP candidates for… — PolitiTweet.org