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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @galendruke: 🎧 New pod 🎧 We talked about the American Rescue Plan, the newly proposed voting restrictions in Georgia, and a poll that a… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I actually think NY/DC political elites are sometimes worse at understanding the political preferences of normie blue-state Democrats because they (sometimes quite mistakenly) assume the normie Dems think like them whereas they wouldn't make that mistake with MAGA voters etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Go talk to some Shy Cuomo Voters at a diner (hopefully with outdoor seating options) in Poughkeepsie, is basically what I'm saying. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Also, NY tends to have fairly sensible COVID restrictions (i.e. not too draconian especially re: outdoor activity but also not too lax), has made reasonable efforts to keep schools open, and put a big early emphasis on ramping up testing, which is relatively easy to obtain. — PolitiTweet.org
Stu Laser @stuloeser
All due respect, not surprising at all. 1) For ~100 days Cuomo told people he's not perfect but he's trying. They… https://t.co/RYdLplNZZv
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Well, it could be an issue in communities with low vaccine uptake! But yeah agree with the broader point. The message should be focused on persuading swing voters, so to speak. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So the net effect of this messaging may be to make vaccine-eager people superfluously careful to the point of being bad for their mental health, while Florida Man says "screw it, why bother with the vaccine at all" and keeps causing community spread. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's a big win though when you can get a vaccine-skeptical person to take one. They may be the sort of person who is already going to crowded bars, not wearing masks, or has to work in crowded indoor settings. For them & their community, a vaccine may be the only line of defense. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
What makes this extra complicated is that the people who are most eager to take vaccines are generally also people who (both by choice and by privilege) are most likely to also undertake other protective behaviors. So that isn't necessarily the group you need to be more careful. — PolitiTweet.org
Michael Rosenberg @MJRosenbergDad
@NateSilver538 Public health officials, rightly or wrongly, imagine their audience as Florida Man, eager to do the… https://t.co/sUTHfA4cIg
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jbarro I should note that that's the high end of their range; they simulate values between 0% and 40% in terms of how much summer reduces transmission. And I'd guess that *range* is decently close to the consensus, i.e. some epis seem to think seasonality is a big deal and some do not. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jbarro I don't know if this paper reflects the consensus per se but it has a lot of big names attached, and it postulated that R could be *as much as* 40% lower in the summer. So e.g. a ~1.2 Rt in the winter could be ~0.7 in the summer. https://t.co/Kt7wZqbmob — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
So maybe an important question might be: what are the MOST important caveats? Wait until you FULLY complete your va… https://t.co/KbgfuJhGGA — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The risks are asymmetric, though, since the core of the message is the most important part. If you emphasize the ca… https://t.co/WtvjQVOhrv — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
The challenge on messaging re: how people should behave once vaccinated is that the core of the message is like "It… https://t.co/SHGrZmQLi6 — PolitiTweet.org
Aaron Astor @AstorAaron
But this is a nuanced point that is hard to convert into policy. All the more reason for the media to be careful ab… https://t.co/b0O4EWuqVk
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @laurabronner: Last summer, we set out to find out how much cities spend on settlements for police misconduct -- bills often footed by t… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I see other people dunking on this article and that's justified... it reads like something an anti-vaxxer would wri… https://t.co/BHjeGnp9Wh — PolitiTweet.org
NBC New York @NBCNewYork
You’re fully vaccinated against the coronavirus — now what? Don’t expect to shed your mask and get back to normal a… https://t.co/KnjPtOfjDV
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @perrybaconjr: So here are the nine lessons on doing better political reporting I took away from the last five years. https://t.co/dDVKq… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@JADubin5 The more I think about this the more the entire metaphor is confusing. Shouldn't the paint be downtown and 3-point range be the suburbs? Uptown would be midrange. A particularly long 3 would be said to come from "outside the metropolitan statistical area". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @EricTopol: @NateSilver538 @notdred Great question, w/ data so mixed: The failure of the Astra Zeneca vaccine to prevent mild-moderate i… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@EricTopol @notdred We know that B.1.351 causes some immune escape... but in your view does the rapid decline in cases in South Africa mean we should revise priors on just how much it has? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@DKThomp @mattyglesias Yeah, the hedging from Fauci on what vaccine-protected people can do bothers me a lot more than the hedging on what "normal" means. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen @MattZeitlin @mattyglesias Normal on Twitter is when blue-checkmarks go back to exaggerating how much of a social life they have instead of how little of one. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Obviously everyone's interpretation of "normal" is subjective but I do think there's a collective element to what people mean by normal. Not just that they can do stuff but that it isn't fraught or complicated or stigmatized or requires complex negotiations with family/friends. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Functionally speaking I think for most people it means something like "you and your peer group don't constantly have to be thinking about COVID-related risk". — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @ABCPolitics: How much retribution are the senators who broke rank and voted to convict former Pres. Trump going to face? @FiveThirtyEig… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @scottlincicome: A new, real-world Israeli study shows the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is almost 90% effective at stopping COVID-19 transmis… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias Other polls show a bigger drop. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Anna_Rothschild: I've been super stressed about the new COVID variants, so @sindujas and I devoted this week's episode of PODCAST-19 to… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@kmedved @bbstats Udonis Haslem has had kind of a cool career... has to be one of the biggest outliers in league history in terms of how long his career has persisted relative to how long a model would have predicted. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's sort of fascinating that Biden has this broad, diverse, electorally successful and largely drama-free coalition of the left and the center whereas within other left-leaning institutions (media, education) people want to tear one another to shreds all the time. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@ShaneGoldmacher @DavidNir I'll even push the envelope to a windless 21 or 23 but yeah the threshold is somewhere around there. — PolitiTweet.org
