Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 11, 2021

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Mon Feb 22 15:57:39 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I should note that that's the high end of their range; they simulate values between 0% and 40% in terms of how much summer reduces transmission. And I'd guess that *range* is decently close to the consensus, i.e. some epis seem to think seasonality is a big deal and some do not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I don't know if this paper reflects the consensus per se but it has a lot of big names attached, and it postulated that R could be *as much as* 40% lower in the summer. So e.g. a ~1.2 Rt in the winter could be ~0.7 in the summer. https://t.co/Kt7wZqbmob — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What makes this extra complicated is that the people who are most eager to take vaccines are generally also people who (both by choice and by privilege) are most likely to also undertake other protective behaviors. So that isn't necessarily the group you need to be more careful. — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 Public health officials, rightly or wrongly, imagine their audience as Florida Man, eager to do the… https://t.co/sUTHfA4cIg

Posted Feb. 22, 2021