Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 11, 2021

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Mon Feb 22 15:52:20 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I don't know if this paper reflects the consensus per se but it has a lot of big names attached, and it postulated that R could be *as much as* 40% lower in the summer. So e.g. a ~1.2 Rt in the winter could be ~0.7 in the summer. https://t.co/Kt7wZqbmob — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So maybe an important question might be: what are the MOST important caveats? Wait until you FULLY complete your va… https://t.co/KbgfuJhGGA — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro I should note that that's the high end of their range; they simulate values between 0% and 40% in terms of how much summer reduces transmission. And I'd guess that *range* is decently close to the consensus, i.e. some epis seem to think seasonality is a big deal and some do not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Feb. 22, 2021