Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @FiveThirtyEight: Our women's March Madness predictions: https://t.co/n6cTqPVhhG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias That's all compatible, I think! Liberals may publicly advocate for more restrictions than they're personally abiding by. And they may also be more mindful of their behavior in public (e.g. they wouldn't want to be seen at a restaurant) than what they do with friends at home. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias I don't know that this is a matter of policing etc. so much as that liberals' revealed preference for the rules doesn't necessarily match their stated preference. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden @sdbaral @JoshSchoen Several of these symptoms are routinely experienced by ~20% of the population in any given week and I'm pretty sure that's not just COVID or long COVID. https://t.co/BT47WuNxZ4 https://t.co/Ewyfr3D5fS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden @sdbaral @JoshSchoen Yeah, and there's a related issue here where I don't know that the CDC guidance is necessarily optimal to have this broad list of symptoms as opposed to giving people guidance on what symptoms distinguish COVID from other conditions. https://t.co/PWrRUtmAdu https://t.co/rZvE1xR4Zb — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@sdbaral @WesPegden One basic thing I'd like to know is what percentage of people's COVID exposure comes from different categories, e.g. work, household, "inessential" activities out of household, "essential" activities out of household. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@NickRiccardi @conorsen NYC is a pretty good example with considerably fewer cases in Manhattan and "Brownstone Brooklyn" than the rest of the city. Although how you'd tease WFH out from overall socioeconomic advantages might be tricky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @conorsen I don't know how you'd enforce limits on home gatherings at all, without some draconian controls that Americans would likely find unacceptable. At least in NYC, there's also not much enforcement of say restaurant capacity limits (there was at some point but not any more tbh). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, I think it's partly the stuff that people tend to get excised about, such as restaurants, reflect a relatively small share of contacts and also have ready substitutes (inviting friends over). Encouraging WFH and limiting large indoor gatherings might be higher stakes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If COVID has an R of 2.5 if people don't change behavior at all, then reducing contracts by 40% gets you to 1.5 which is helpful but still produces fairly rapid exponential growth. So you need other interventions too. Masks help. Better testing and tracing might help a lot too. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When people are scared, as at the start of the pandemic, they may greatly limit contact. After that, the data suggests that it's hard to sustain better than a ~40% reduction and this value has actually been surprisingly consistent from state to state despite different rules. https://t.co/x1CNeIJumD — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is well done. Personally, I think one takeaway is it's hard to solve COVID through lockdowns alone. There's a limit on how much people are willing to limit social contact, many jobs can't be remote, some people live in crowded living quarters, etc. https://t.co/RCRtQePQYV — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart The gap isn't closing at all either. It's actually been expanding lately. And that was before the EU's latest AstraZeneca panic, which will not only slow things down in the short run but might increase vaccine hesitancy. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm I'm sure there are ways to get somewhere with it, especially now that we've had a year's worth of data—I can imagine some clever designs looking at short-term temperature fluctuations, etc.—but you'd also need controls for which policies were in effect, etc. Doable but tricky. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm It's tricky because there are different theories about whether its temperature itself that matters, vs. humidity, vs. the use of air conditioning, vs. people being inside/outside, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@WesPegden I'm still pretty confused about whether B.1.1.7 does not have as large a transmissibility advantage as originally feared, whether it does but this is outweighed by other factors, or whether there's other complicated stuff going on. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm I think that's a lot of it, yeah. Plus the Northeast does a lot more testing than other regions. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah, I think we have a couple more weeks of being nervous, then increased vaccination rates we're seeing lately should give us a bigger buffer. And agree that the outcomes aren't totally binary, e.g. we could have a bumpy descent instead of a surge per se. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Lots of plausible reasons for that. Could be weather-related. The South is coming down from a higher peak. Northern states are tending to relax restrictions now whereas Southern states had them relaxed all along. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Seeing conversation about why cases are not declining as fast in NY as in other parts of the country but the thing is it's not really a NY-specific phenomenon. With some exceptions, Northern states (especially in the Northeast) are showing a slower decline than Southern ones. https://t.co/3ksdpVJ6Sl — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait https://t.co/w5qk37B13d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Gonzaga 27% Illinois 14% Baylor 14% Iowa 6% Houston 5% Michigan 4% Ohio State 4% https://t.co/grPPrYBuhG — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Meanwhile, the gap between the EU and the US continues to grow as we are much faster to vaccinate. https://t.co/BGmOvtips0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Was seeing a lot of premature concern a week ago that cases in Israel were hitting a plateau despite their rapid vaccination but yeah they've started to crush their curve again. https://t.co/bE4b63z6Ip https://t.co/gSaQAh3nvs — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a weird invocation of the precautionary principle. What we know for sure is that people will die if you delay administration of the vaccine. You should need a VERY good reason to stop administration of a vaccine that has undergone extensive clinical trials. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The real test for whether films from The Future accurately capture what life was like in 2020/21 is not just that they show (most) people wearing masks but also that there are masks just randomly strewn about on the sidewalk, in your apartment, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@AlecMacGillis I think if you'd asked me at the start of the pandemic, I'd have expected support for lockdowns to be conservative-coded. They promote domesticity over "city life", result in an implicit transfer of welfare from the young to the old, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are gonna be lots of weird knockoff effects from the pandemic/lockdowns, mostly negative (like this one) but with a few positive surprises thrown in. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

A poker room anywhere in the 5 boros or Nassau or Westchester would be pretty great. https://t.co/IbCxpGLxVY https://t.co/SlxULGjTUw — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@baseballot I though you were gonna disagree with me about this! I'll always remember when we went to Maine for the holidays one year and it got dark at like 345pm. — PolitiTweet.org