Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 2, 2021

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Mon Mar 15 17:00:09 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If COVID has an R of 2.5 if people don't change behavior at all, then reducing contracts by 40% gets you to 1.5 which is helpful but still produces fairly rapid exponential growth. So you need other interventions too. Masks help. Better testing and tracing might help a lot too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 15, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When people are scared, as at the start of the pandemic, they may greatly limit contact. After that, the data suggests that it's hard to sustain better than a ~40% reduction and this value has actually been surprisingly consistent from state to state despite different rules. https://t.co/x1CNeIJumD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 15, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Yeah, I think it's partly the stuff that people tend to get excised about, such as restaurants, reflect a relatively small share of contacts and also have ready substitutes (inviting friends over). Encouraging WFH and limiting large indoor gatherings might be higher stakes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 15, 2021