Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dandrezner Something like 20 percent of Americans have no close social contacts, and 50 percent have 3 or fewer. Sort of by definition, they're probably not the people you know. https://t.co/FyfsVQros0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@lpolgreen To me it's a close call between opening it up to everyone and focusing on certain zip codes. But there are 109 sites with availability right now. The city needs to raise awareness about these pharmacy appointments. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@philipaklein There's always been a puritanical streak to pandemic Twitter and this was one of the best examples of that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looks like there are still lots of vaccine appointments available this week at retail pharmacies in NYC. People with underlying conditions are now eligible to get vaccinated at these pharmacies, a change that took effect today. Would be bad if these appointments went to waste. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @CT_Bergstrom: Yes. https://t.co/l6nHO65t5e — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ashishkjha: Absolutely what Nate said None of us expected vaccines this good In an August conversation with Tony Fauci -- we both sai… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @notdred: @NateSilver538 Yup. Flu shot level efficacy was a reasonable assumption. And maybe a month could have been shaved off developm… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @EricTopol: @NateSilver538 Yup https://t.co/FI7lPJG3iq — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen In the US I think that's mostly true although also Biden has benefited from low expectations. Very mixed bag worldwide of course. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The huge success of the initial vaccines, both the speed in developing them and their very high efficacy, has to be in like the 95th percentile of reasonable expectations, right? For as much as has gone wrong on COVID without those great vaccines it could be very much worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm suppose I'm trying to avoid twitter fights but holy shit there's a lot of dumb shit out there on the platform. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@davejorgenson https://t.co/ekzlruk9On — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @perrybaconjr: We looked at why conservatives are increasingly invoking the terms woke and cancel culture (as pejoratives) and how that… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's going on? Well, "high information" adults are probably more likely to 1) seek out vaccines and 2) know how to get them (e.g. navigating the right websites). They're probably also more likely to respond to polls in ways that demographic weighing isn't entirely able to fix. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is sort of an interesting example of response bias in polls. A new Quinnipiac poll found that 38% of adults in New York say they've "gotten a COVID-19 vaccine". But we know what the *actual* number is and it's closer to 30% (at least one dose). https://t.co/tdD4VfciV7 https://t.co/jBkaCh3kR9 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I get a little nervous when experts try to be both predictive and proscriptive ("My forecast says X. That means we need to do Y.") People who are skilled forecasters don't necessarily have any special insight into policymaking, and vice versa. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Neoavatara Yeah, certainly matches my anecdotal experience in NYC, although tamped down a bit by weather that's been unseasonably cold. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The silver lining is that the surge in vaccinations that also began ~2-3 weeks ago hasn't necessarily had time to be reflected much in the data yet. Keep in mind it takes time for people to get fully protected. https://t.co/HlNWAsJV03 https://t.co/cpxWKtJOZo — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For that reason, I'm more inclined to think the current ~plateau in the number of cases is real than the one that was prematurely declared a few weeks ago (which mostly reflected weather-related quirks in testing and reporting). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Pretty clear from survey and movement tracking data that Americans have begun to relax their behavior and socialize more over the past 3 weeks or so. https://t.co/BT47WuNxZ4 https://t.co/mdivpJO3bS — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID deaths are now falling quite a bit faster than cases in the US, which I assume reflects some combination of: 1) Deaths are lagged relative to cases, and cases were falling at a faster rate a few weeks ago; 2) We are to *some* degree vaccinating the most vulnerable first. https://t.co/8D4Rq6icnZ — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias The outdoor dining, which NYC was long strangely averse to, is a pretty big aesthetic improvement. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen @mattyglesias I don't know what prediction I'd make about actual living patterns, but I do think we're gonna get a lot of NYC FOMO takes ("I left Brooklyn for Boulder. Now I'm moving back.") starting fairly soon. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes Of course, but even that's somewhat complicated. How do we grade the Trump WH's performance on vaccines? How do we grade it on the economy/stimulus? And given negative partisanship, it's tricky to assess what effects Trump's terrible messaging had on behavior. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And by "people", I mostly mean media and other elites. The general public in some ways had a more sophisticated view: Trump's approval ratings on COVID were quite poor insofar as they went, but the public hedged a fair bit on how much blame they assigned to him for the crisis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It shouldn't be forgotten this was taking place in an election year. Trump's behavior was so obviously buffoonish and indefensible—a super-spreader event at the White House!—that people didn't want to acknowledge it was but one of many complicated factors affecting our response. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is a good thread and one that's somewhat cathartic to read as someone who got yelled a lot for pointing out that most other large counties in Europe and the Americas (clearest exceptions: Germany, Canada) were struggling roughly as much as the US with COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're about a year removed from when Elizabeth Warren, overwhelmingly more popular than Joe Biden on this platform as well as among my college-educated peer group, finished a distant 3rd place behind Biden **IN THE MASSACHUSETTS DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY**. https://t.co/G8mF7c53ki — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The whole point is that you're better off looking at polling data and election results because the sort of people who attend city council meetings aren't remotely representative of the electorate overall. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One of Yang's strengths electorally is that he doesn't overestimate how far to the left Democratic primary voters are, which a lot of people both in politics and in the media do. Keep in mind that Cuomo overwhelmingly beat Cynthia Nixon in NYC in 2018. https://t.co/e9uDy4gPqm https://t.co/bhRj123hNo — PolitiTweet.org