Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 6, 2021

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Thu Mar 18 21:03:29 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is sort of an interesting example of response bias in polls. A new Quinnipiac poll found that 38% of adults in New York say they've "gotten a COVID-19 vaccine". But we know what the *actual* number is and it's closer to 30% (at least one dose). https://t.co/tdD4VfciV7 https://t.co/jBkaCh3kR9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 18, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I get a little nervous when experts try to be both predictive and proscriptive ("My forecast says X. That means we need to do Y.") People who are skilled forecasters don't necessarily have any special insight into policymaking, and vice versa. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 18, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What's going on? Well, "high information" adults are probably more likely to 1) seek out vaccines and 2) know how to get them (e.g. navigating the right websites). They're probably also more likely to respond to polls in ways that demographic weighing isn't entirely able to fix. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted March 18, 2021