Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've been in the Miami area for the past few days and people here wear masks indoors (~95% of the time) but rarely outdoors (~25%) and it's sort of funny to see the expert consensus on this issue evolve to what Florida (and I gather other purple states) has been doing all along. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

COVID cases now (narrowly) declining in the US vs. two weeks ago for the first time in a while, per NYT. https://t.co/i8ElZQJZ5p https://t.co/Cehee9iNof — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias This also ties in to the decline of local news. If your purview includes the entire country or even the entire world, you have a lot more degrees of freedom in which stories to pursue. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss That's when they check the SkyClub records, find you never logged in, and send a SWAT team to your hotel room. You wake up 6 hours later in a remote parking lot at Ontario Airport with your luggage, a small bag of pretzels, and a Dasani water. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss They'd almost certainly cancel any return flights you booked and they could threaten to take away frequent flier miles, but honestly stick to one-way flights and you'll probably be fine and doing this is ethically and morally honorable IMO. https://t.co/UQ0ksDQpJR — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren No 1) is somewhat tricky to measure, in part because vaccine-hesitant people are probably also the sorts of people whom its hard to reach in a poll, but in the long run the best indicator is probably simply how many people are getting vaccinated. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren One prediction I'd make (with fairly high confidence though not 100% confidence) is that perceptions of J&J will never fully recover, and that will have some consequences down the road. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ZoeMcLaren The topline numbers differ a bit from poll to poll but I wouldn't necessarily expect a huge effect. My concerns are mostly along these lines: 1) The effects among people who haven't taken the vaccine yet 2) The effects on people for whom J&J was the best/most convenient option — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen I also think the peak probably would have come this week or next week anyway even without the J&J pause. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen If I had to guess probably yeah. Maybe they claw a little back when/if they unpause J&J, especially if they get the messaging right, though the fact that there's pretty widespread availability of the mRNA vaccines now suggest that supply already outstrips demand. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also it's weird to frame the J&J pause in the passive voice as though it was some exogenous shock they now have to work around. His boss (HHS Sec. Becerra) was part of the initial decision to suspend the vaccine! That decision had consequences! https://t.co/gBI8ThBW4J https://t.co/Rjzz1xgQeC — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now they're spinning "declining but not by that much" as good news. (Also J&J was *out* of circulation at this point last week so his remark about having one fewer vaccine in the rotation is misleading, though reporting lags create some ambiguity.) https://t.co/oyIUzgLs5X — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That isn't really what the polling data shows but the fact that the White House is doing this much spinning is a bearish indicator. If they were confident that the decline in vaccinations was a blip that would resolve itself, they'd say as much. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I don't know that there's as much consensus about this among hockey fans as you'd think. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ArmstrongDrew It's always tricky, but the fact that there's widespread availability of the mRNA vaccines most places isn't a great fact for the FDA/CDC, as it suggests that people with cancelled J&J appointments (or who would have made J&J appointments) aren't substituting the other vaccines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@ArmstrongDrew The problem is there wasn't a secular downtrend already underway. The downtrend began the very day the J&J pause was announced, and now seems to be picking up steam. So while it *could* all be a coincidence, I don't think this one is *that* hard to parse. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Stapes I always thought* they were "whole cards" as in cards you get to keep entirely for yourself and don't have to share with the rest of the table. * I never actually thought this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@grace_panetta @SeanTrende If the feds had given the states more of a heads-up, maybe there could have been better contingency plans in place for routing people scheduled for J&J doses to other vaccines. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The White House can spin this however it likes but going from 2.5m doses last Tuesday to 1.8m today is fairly discouraging. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @SantulN: Read @AlexSamuelsx5 on why the Chauvin verdict is far from the end of the fight against police misconduct and brutality https… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Yamiche: NYT: Derek Chauvin faces up to 40 years in prison when he is sentenced in the coming weeks but is likely to receive less time.… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Yamiche: Jury finds Derek Chauvin GUILTY of all charges in the death of George Floyd. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Phil_Mattingly: The jury finds Derek Chauvin: Count 1: GUILTY Count 2: GUILTY Count 3: GUILTY — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @brentajones: This is how @stltoday decided to play and headline a story that 0.03% of people who have been vaccinated in St. Louis Coun… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@rogbennett In 5g,8ji — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Bencjacobs: @NateSilver538 Which means there's still hope for American Samoa to get a team in the league — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This thing is falling apart faster than Michael Bloomberg's presidental campaign. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Noahpinion: Remember my post about how experts aren't experts when it comes to communications? Pausing vaccines at the drop of a hat i… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jodyavirgan I guess I'm just saying that it could have been a massive miscalculation which is of course the danger with brinksmanship. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jodyavirgan What's super weird to me that UEFA approved a Champions League expansion (which would get these clubs some of what they were looking for) after the Super League announcement yesterday? https://t.co/6eRYIRUu7z — PolitiTweet.org