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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It may be analogous to the incentives behind "wet bias" (the tendency to overpredict rain) in TV weather forecasting. Good shit happens, people are happy and have better things to do than critique overly pessimistic forecasts. But bad shit happens and people are out for blood. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't think it's too surprising that COVID cases have continued to fall—maybe there will be problems down the road—and there's probably a good essay to be written about how excessive pessimism has come to be mistaken for savviness among a certain crowd. https://t.co/B2ypxlxBIE https://t.co/byP7z1Xt32 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @jbarro It's a great question and I may have to do some #investigativejournalism where I talk to poker room managers. I think one challenge is that you want an intermediate about of friction, i.e. I can easily rebuy for another $1k at 3am but not easily tap into my life savings. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @jbarro I see that neither of you are poker players. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden's approval rating has never been below 52.5% or above 55.0%. https://t.co/n2XzvOgs0J https://t.co/jtVLTwQwPF — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
There's a Great Lakes region (dark green) and a Great Plains region (light green), which together form the Midwest. Note that the Great Lakes region extends into Western PA/NY and the Great Plains as far south as TX/OK (and as far west as Eastern CO). https://t.co/OudewG8DzW — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
As a Midwest Geography Take-Haver, this is pretty much on the right track IMO! Although I have a refinement or two. — PolitiTweet.org
ghost denier @coronarycommie
because there's a lot of Midwest discourse today I thought I would give you all a quick geography lesson https://t.co/2foV2tBlwu
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's because Twitter made her a trending topic, which is basically a bat-signal for idiots. — PolitiTweet.org
McKay Coppins @mckaycoppins
The newsworthiness of this is so self-evident that I literally don't understand the Twitter freakout over it. https://t.co/b7yJogSWVZ
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Sure, you can try to persuade Manchin. But it's a tough pitch. Saying, "we've written a [new] bill that specifically focuses on the MOST IMPORTANT reforms to address the IMMEDIATE EMERGENCY" might stand a better chance of doing that. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I don't mean to sound snarky, but I'm not sure what Democrats' current gameplan is, exactly. Hope that Manchin—who they have no real electoral leverage against—wakes up one morning and caves? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Elected officials are responsive to lobbyists and special interests, though! A bill that substantially changes campaign finance and lobbying rules (as HR1 does) is going to be harder to pass than one that focuses more directly on voting and democratic protections. — PolitiTweet.org
Lessig @lessig
This is missing a critical point. The parts people are talking about shedding are not earning you any votes — just… https://t.co/osSm6jOaQU
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jonmladd Totally fair point. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jonmladd It's true that he did not reverse educational polarization. OTOH, beating an elected incumbent by 4.5 points is a pretty decent topline showing. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@jonmladd I don't see why you're lumping Biden together with Clinton instead of with Obama. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Biden gets this too, that demonstrating empathy for people who disagree with you makes for good politics, but it very much cuts against the fashion nowadays. — PolitiTweet.org
Ezra Klein @ezraklein
As @Davidshor often notes, a key Obama achievement is he cut educational polarization in both 2008 and 2012 — and f… https://t.co/EgXnJpqbrZ
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @rickhasen: And on the specific need to deal not just with voter suppression but with election subversion https://t.co/qmrAly8rHv — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @rickhasen: Made this point back in March: https://t.co/nxBElfzdcH https://t.co/rjl173A3J0 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OK, maybe not *inexplicable*. I think it's probably tied to an increasing tendency in liberal/progressive circles to see precision/nuance as "unhelpful". But crafting legislation on a subject as complicated as this requires precision, especially if it's gonna get Manchin's vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
It's really quite inexplicable that there haven't been more efforts on this front. Democrats don't necessarily have the luxury of time either because a 50/50 majority is quite vulnerable to any deaths or resignations among D members of the Senate. https://t.co/yeKlc03W5H — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
And part of the problem here is that HR1 doesn't include a lot of what you'd want for protecting democracy, and so… https://t.co/HGWlG6A583
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Yeah. Certain activists are acting like it's HR1 or nothing. But HR1 is a broad, sweeping bill, with only loose overlap to what steps would actually do the most to protect democracy. A more narrowly-tailored, "skinny" bill might have a better chance of getting Manchin's vote. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn
I doubt anything can get 60 votes right now. But if there's any chance to get Manchin off the filibuster, it would… https://t.co/2AG8LJrxYp
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Which statement is CLOSER to your view? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I see both of these sentiments expressed fairly often, so I'm curious what the general view is among my liberal followers. Which of these statements is CLOSER to your view? (Poll in next question down.) https://t.co/fbuzq4DFzB — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@allahpundit @maggieNYT At first I scrolled past this assuming it meant "reinstated on Twitter" but... yeah. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @FiveThirtyEight: We define “partisan lean” as the average margin difference between how a state or district votes and how the country v… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@davidshor @mattyglesias I think you're probably just selecting for age here. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
This doesn't apply if you're still learning about a topic. But if you're reasonably well-versed on a debate, then reading an article, essay, Twitter thread etc. should leave you *less* convinced of the author's position fairly often. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@mattyglesias @davidshor There was certainly some boneheaded bothsidesism about the Kamala Harris tweet by a handful of reporters and editors who are often boneheaded but I'd suggest such examples are becoming harder to find. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@davidshor @mattyglesias As the media has become more ideologically uniform there's no longer really any distinction between media criticism and "cultural" criticism. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Neoavatara FWIW, NYC is pretty much fully open at this point. So I suspect these gaps will close in the coming months. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@SethPartnow What about the overseas and absentee buckets?!? — PolitiTweet.org
