Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 8, 2021

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Wed Jun 02 11:30:52 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be analogous to the incentives behind "wet bias" (the tendency to overpredict rain) in TV weather forecasting. Good shit happens, people are happy and have better things to do than critique overly pessimistic forecasts. But bad shit happens and people are out for blood. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it's too surprising that COVID cases have continued to fall—maybe there will be problems down the road—and there's probably a good essay to be written about how excessive pessimism has come to be mistaken for savviness among a certain crowd. https://t.co/B2ypxlxBIE https://t.co/byP7z1Xt32 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth keeping in mind HR1 was drafted in 2019, when Democrats controlled the House but not the Senate or the presidency. That is to say, it had no chance of becoming law and it bears the hallmarks of that: a smorgasbord of priorities but not tightly-crafted language. — PolitiTweet.org

More generally, there's this weird thing that's going on with the HR1 push: there's not really much evidence of an… https://t.co/5yKP5r09U9

Posted June 2, 2021