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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 8, 2021

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Wed Jun 02 13:31:49 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth keeping in mind HR1 was drafted in 2019, when Democrats controlled the House but not the Senate or the presidency. That is to say, it had no chance of becoming law and it bears the hallmarks of that: a smorgasbord of priorities but not tightly-crafted language. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn

More generally, there's this weird thing that's going on with the HR1 push: there's not really much evidence of an… https://t.co/5yKP5r09U9

Posted June 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be analogous to the incentives behind "wet bias" (the tendency to overpredict rain) in TV weather forecasting. Good shit happens, people are happy and have better things to do than critique overly pessimistic forecasts. But bad shit happens and people are out for blood. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's little chance you'd end up with this bill if you'd started drafting something freshly in Jan. 2021, accounting for what we learned over the past 2 years (i.e. the increased threat of electoral subversion) and that Dems now do have the trifecta but by super narrow margins. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021