Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked July 8, 2021

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Wed Jun 02 11:20:41 +0000 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think it's too surprising that COVID cases have continued to fall—maybe there will be problems down the road—and there's probably a good essay to be written about how excessive pessimism has come to be mistaken for savviness among a certain crowd. https://t.co/B2ypxlxBIE https://t.co/byP7z1Xt32 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias @jbarro It's a great question and I may have to do some #investigativejournalism where I talk to poker room managers. I think one challenge is that you want an intermediate about of friction, i.e. I can easily rebuy for another $1k at 3am but not easily tap into my life savings. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It may be analogous to the incentives behind "wet bias" (the tendency to overpredict rain) in TV weather forecasting. Good shit happens, people are happy and have better things to do than critique overly pessimistic forecasts. But bad shit happens and people are out for blood. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 2, 2021