Nate Silver

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@notdred Yeah our mRNA mix and possibly higher seroprevalence might help a bit. OTOH people (most importantly, unvaccinated people) have mostly seemed to abandon any pretense of COVID precautions over here. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thehowie Yeah the current data is kind of mixed, positive test rate is still going down for instance. Just saying it's worth keeping a close eye on this. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While there are some differences between the US and the UK situations, they're close enough in terms of the number of people vaccinated etc that we could obviously also see a rise in cases here too because of the Delta variant. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note Yglesias's point about mass mobilization and protest. Now, maybe it arrives spontaneously if/when the GOP actually does try to subvert an election result. Maybe! But, IDK, I feel like I should be reading more about on-the-ground organizing preparing for that. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Now, it's also the case that of the things you can do—still quite a bit!—HR1 doesn't do some of it and does others poorly (and/or in a way that might not withstand legal scrutiny), while also doing a bunch of other stuff that's fairly tangential to the current crisis. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This (gated) Yglesias post from yesterday gets at a sobering point: the threats to democracy are quite serious, but there's only so much you can do with federal legislation when some of the threats come from, say, heavily gerrymandered state legislatures. https://t.co/6QaQdOLVzj https://t.co/eieQ2PKwFf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@bendreyfuss I have a soft spot for AC but the problem is that it's exactly far enough away from NYC that "you might as well go to Vegas or Florida" is always a consideration. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The NYT has a pretty striking negativity bias in its COVID coverage, even relative to other outlets. https://t.co/qwoluYqkIF — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Taking my first transcontinental plane trip since the pandemic started and I can't understand why people keep their windows down, it's pretty awesome to see the Rockies and everything. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @jonathanchait Nah, changing the speed bothers me a lot. I might go to 1.2x or something if I'm listening purely for work purposes. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait Does anyone have this skill though? Can process 2 verbal/audio streams at once? I emphatically do not, it turns out. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Have been trying to read a book while listening to a podcast and I'm pretty sure I have about 0% recall from either. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @rachelholliday: "Never vote for someone you hate." — the best advice I've heard so far on ranked choice voting tons of good voting str… — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's also a Univision poll out today that actually conducted bilingual interviews (seems pretty essential in NYC!) but is also somewhat out of date. So it's very much a matter of picking your poison. https://t.co/XYDwOvHKM3 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Adams has a much bigger lead in the ranked-choice version of the poll. I'd had some notion that the progressive vote was divided which could help Wiley in subsequent rounds (e.g. gaining from Stringer). But instead there may be more votes to gain for the more moderate candidates. https://t.co/VyNQDAeq7d — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is the pollster that had shown a big bounce for Garcia before, so either that previous poll was an outlier or her momentum has been usurped by Wiley. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@MattZeitlin Lotta people having fun weekday lunches, not sure if that was always going on and I just wasn't partaking or what. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But just 2 lean toward zoonotic origin, according to the article, so this is sort of a weird way to frame things. https://t.co/qJQ6Z5zlSf — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Honestly liberals should be way madder at Stephen Breyer. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JamesSurowiecki I've been on the Internet a long time. "People are wrong to point out that there isn't a clear scientific consensus about COVID's origins" is one of the shittiest pieces of argumentative real-estate that I've ever seen people try to defend. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We're at kind of a weird media moment where fairly conventional center-leftism is seen as contrarian. https://t.co/Um0wmnXD4l https://t.co/3W1SQBwIML — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If I were a betting man (which I am, just not on elections) I'd want to try to figure out which candidates are performing well among people who don't primarily speak English, because that's a sizable constituency in NYC and it's very likely they're underrepresented in polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wish I had a fun hot-take on the NYC mayoral race but IDK, I suppose these betting market prices mostly make sense. Maybe you could argue for being a little short on Garcia, who's only led in 1 poll and who's momentum may have been usurped by progressive endorsements for Wiley. https://t.co/p5wtewgkrU — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias There's pretty clear evidence—not quite an expert consensus, but most of the way there—that moderation indeed is electorally helpful, and that idea very much is *not* in vogue among progressive activist types. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes @Nate_Cohn @AlecMacGillis There's also a lot of stuff that falls into the category of "organizing for 2022 and 2024" even if any legislation is unlikely to pass now. But I don't think selling false hope is a very good strategy for progressives, and this isn't the first time it's come up (see e.g. M4A). — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's funny that there's so much Trust The Experts™ discourse on COVID but not really on other issues. There's a strong view in political science that the president's bully pulpit is overrated, and certainly in a state that voted for Trump by 39 points. https://t.co/E4q9Xjx42N https://t.co/RAHio2rN31 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe you could convince me the chances of the GOP subverting the election in 2024 are overrated—but it's not just a 2024 issue. If a whole generation of Republican elected officials believe in the Big Lie (or vouch for it for utilitarian reasons) you've got a long term problem. — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, I wish we didn't need to include this sort of disclaimer, but unfortunately I suspect it's going to be a feature of our forecasts going forward. https://t.co/R4ZIzArJ59 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other news, I have a (somewhat belated) review of our how 2020 election forecasts did. Overall we were quite happy and the forecasts were largely accurate and well-calibrated despite a bad year for the polls. But some things to think about for 2022/24. https://t.co/ivCsLKbVO0 — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One way to put it is that the push for HR1 reveals that Democratic leadership is either unserious about elections reform, or thinks there's no chance that anything will pass. — PolitiTweet.org