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Nate Silver @NateSilver538
OTOH a higher percentage of breakthrough cases have few/no symptoms so maybe people wouldn't seek out testing for those. Still, the states with high vax uptake also tend to be doing more testing. E.g. MA has about 2x as much testing per capita as MO despite much less COVID. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
One useful piece of info would be how often people are getting tested by vaccination status. If you don't trust the medical system enough to be vaccinated you're probably not super inclined to get tested either. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @robbysoave: PolitiFact rates as "false" a viral claim that COVID-19 is 99% survivable for most age groups. I say this is fact-check is… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@robbysoave Yeah. And also the notion that COVID has a 99% survival rate is very much in line with the expert consensus. While estimates of the IFR vary a bit from study to study, it's pretty bad that Facebook is flagging that sort of post for misinformation. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Can you do better by also accounting for other stuff like gender, pre-existing conditions, and access to health care? Sure. But age is very very very important in determining COVID fatality rates and looking at age-based survival estimates is surely useful as a first pass. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Not sure which "experts" they're talking to but I doubt many would support this claim. You can certainly look at national statistics for your age group to get a reasonable benchmark for your chances of surviving COVID. — PolitiTweet.org
Poynter @Poynter
Experts say a person cannot determine their own chances at surviving COVID-19 by looking at national statistics, be… https://t.co/UB613MGzZI
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
A lot of experts seem to think the NYT's recent story on long COVID in children was irresponsible. — PolitiTweet.org
Adam W Gaffney @awgaffney
I support dramatic public health interventions in hard hit areas to slow Covid (and buy time to vaccinate everyone… https://t.co/OFmprsBKaa
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Until recently, the US was only doing about 1/3 as much testing as at our previous peak in the winter. It's since increased a bit, but only to more like 1/2. You need to account for that when making inferences about death rates, hospitalization rates, etc. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I'm not as optimistic as this re: the US peak but still an Interesting thread. A year-and-a-half into this thing, and a lot of people still haven't figured out that you don't know much about COVID spread until you account for the amount of testing. — PolitiTweet.org
Craig @TheLawyerCraig
Take a look at the screenshot from the CDC. I've highlighted the 7DA cases and the 7DA positivity %. Now these numb… https://t.co/mXzEzAiwyb
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @sfrostenson: 🚨We're tracking the 2021-22 REDISTRICTING process 🚨https://t.co/EHzipm5DNV ✅analysis of Ds/Rs gains in a state's proposed… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@bendreyfuss I think you're underestimating how sincere people are in their stupidity. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Most people (including "experts") have shitty statistical intuition and COVID is a new situation for everyone. I don't have much faith in their intuition-based estimates of e.g. vaccine effectiveness based on their overall "feel" for the data. The value comes in being rigorous. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Idiotic tweets like this can transmit misinformation just as easily as anti-vaxxers. https://t.co/UzsjDG7fph — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@bp22 I think probably Los Angeles. Lots of variety within the city limits. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @DieRobinsonDie: Uncut Gems but it’s a guy in 1995 risking it all on a 70 to 1 Maggie Simpson bet — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@Potterchik I think (because of dumb media coverage) he's setting a bad example. Vaccinated people socializing with other vaccinated people is quite safe, especially outdoors with a testing requirement. And it's important to celebrate life-critical moments like a 60th birthday. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I bet Obama thinks this is dumb AF. It's outdoors, there are vax *and* test requirements, and every day there are undoubtedly hundreds of gatherings around the country that are much larger with none of those precautions. https://t.co/rVpWlMIqj8 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
In some ways the discourse about boosters reminds me the one on masks last spring. The balance of evidence points toward their being useful even if the marginal returns are much smaller than with initial doses. But, there are shortages elsewhere so other people need vax more. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
I think I'd want a booster if one-dose J&J gave me "up to" 71% protection against hospitalization from Delta when the 2-dose mRNA vaccines are at ~95%. https://t.co/jyp4jG4lJk https://t.co/MBSw8GEcoL — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @JonathanLittle: Join me and my special guests @NateSilver538 & @AMFrankenberger on a drive to play some poker! When talking about Nate’… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Ehh, I'd bet against it. When cases are rising, people get worried and may favor more NPIs. But each peak involves less tolerance for them than previous peaks (e.g. now the conversation is *mostly* about limited indoor masking rather than outdoor masking and lockdowns). — PolitiTweet.org
Nick Riccardi @NickRiccardi
Get ready folks. Masks are here to stay https://t.co/5dY0M1Qvei
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@guan @TheStalwart 👍 🚜 📊 — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @JillFilipovic: The chance of death from Covid for a person vaccinated against Covid is lower than the chance you die of the flu (assumi… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@TheStalwart When does farm payrolls come out? — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
Israel has already reimposed a vaccine pass that limits what unvaccinated people can do. So basically they're threatening unvaccinated people by saying they'd impose lockdowns that would take *vaccinated* people's rights away too. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ https://t.co/X1ncMombJg https://t.co/mebjC0y9qS — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Yeah. Also lockdown compliance erodes over time so even as they make gains from more people being vaccinated that will pull in the opposite direction. One exit strategy: vaccinate all 65+ as fast as you can and then "flatten the curve". The zero Covid folks are...devout though. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
@conorsen Back of the envelope: Wuhan got R down to 0.4 or 0.5 or something during their lockdown but Delta is like 2.5x as contagious as the original strain. So you need a stricter-than-Wuhan lockdown to keep R<1 which I'm not sure is feasible in a democracy. We'll see though. — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @VirusesImmunity: @thehowie @NateSilver538 I also made this figure in @BioRender to help people understand which antibody test will info… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @jburnmurdoch: @NateSilver538 Yep, we get this every week from Public Health England, for example: age specific antibody seroprevalence… — PolitiTweet.org
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
RT @Dereklowe: @NateSilver538 And as others are pointing out, an inactivated-whole-virus vaccine would be expected to produce antibodies to… — PolitiTweet.org
